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San Francisco 49ers NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, & Best Bet (2022)

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The summer is here, and the start of the NFL season will be here before we know it. Now is the time to start digging into NFL futures, both team futures and player futures. NFL futures can be great ways to profit during the upcoming season. We’ll have you covered throughout the offseason with updated news and odds for all futures and Week 1 odds. Let’s look at updated 2022 NFL team win totals and futures odds.

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The 49ers are coming off of a 2021 season in which they exceeded everyone’s expectations. San Francisco not only made it to the NFC Championship but help a double-digit lead at the end of the third quarter before allowing a fourth-quarter comeback to the eventual champion Rams.

This offseason, San Francisco lost two members of their O-Line – Laken Tomlinson (100%) and Tom Compton (52.5%) – who were each on the field for over 50% of offensive plays in 2021. The 49ers also lost two starting members of their secondary in Jaquiski Tartt and K’Waun Williams. The signing of CB Charvarius Ward should be a significant boost to the secondary, but the team will need to adapt to new personnel on offense and defense. The biggest storyline this season in San Francisco will be Trey Lance. The promising QB has a wide range of possible outcomes this season, but if he can provide an improvement over Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers can go deep into the playoff again.

San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl Odds (+1600)

While NFL teams often say “Super Bowl or bust.” In reality, no team’s base case is a Super Bowl championship. Injuries, performance in clutch moments, and dumb luck all play a role in deciding whether a good team can actually take home a championship. For this reason, when looking at Super Bowl futures, it can be less important to ask “which team has a good chance at a Super Bowl title” and better to ask “which team has a deep playoff run as a feasible bull case for their season”. 

As I mentioned before, the range of outcomes for Trey Lance may be wider than any other starting QB in the NFL this season. Lance played just one college game in the hectic 2020 college football season. The 49ers drafted him top three overall with the knowledge that his passing ability was a project. Last season, Lance’s 97.3 QB rating on 71 pass attempts was just below Garoppolo’s regular season mark of 98.7. He posted an impressive season throwing the ball while also being effective as a runner in Kyle Shanahan’s unique offense.

Given San Francisco’s consistently good defense and unique offensive scheme, a second-year leap from Lance would put this team squarely in the conversation of the best teams in the NFC. Shanahan has gotten better performances out of worse QBs than Lance, and a true playmaker at QB gives San Francisco as good a shot as anyone at making the Super Bowl.

I’m buying the 49ers’ Super Bowl chances at +1600.

San Francisco 49ers Conference Winner Odds (+750)

For the reasons outlined above, I think the 49ers have an NFC Championship within the range of possible outcomes. Oddsmakers have San Francisco as the fourth most likely team to win the NFC this year, behind Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Los Angeles. Each of these teams is a known quantity with a star veteran QB, but none of these teams have done anything to improve greatly or change their narratives this offseason. In fact, Tampa Bay is introducing a new Head Coach, and Green Bay is figuring out what their passing game will look like with Davante Adams playing for Las Vegas.

The 49ers are a bit of a sleeper to win the NFC behind these three favorites. Given that they have a chance to improve on a 2021 season that saw them in a prime position to take home an NFC Championship, I feel good about getting the offered +750 price on a 2022 NFC title. That said, I don’t like this bet as much as the +1600 Super Bowl bet. San Francisco’s good passing defense and ability to run the ball when they need to will make them a tough matchup for whoever they play in the Super Bowl if Lance can carry them that far.

San Francisco 49ers NFC West Odds (+200)

The NFC West is going to be tough in 2022, with three teams having a legitimate shot to win the division. The Los Angeles Rams (+130) are the favorites coming in, fresh off a Super Bowl championship. San Francisco is the second betting favorite for the division, and the Cardinals round out the top three at +300. Seattle, of course, is a distant fourth in preseason odds.

I’m selling the Cardinals’ odds at +300. Kliff Kingsbury hasn’t yet been able to put together a complete season despite his talented roster, and DeAndre Hopkins’ absence could cause pains for the Cards’ passing game. It’s hard to see Kyler Murray putting together a season good enough for the Cardinals to jump both San Francisco and Los Angeles, especially with the new Call of Duty game due to drop on October 28.

This leaves us with a choice between the Rams and the 49ers. While the Rams are coming off a great season, the 49ers did sweep them in their 2021 regular season matchups and outplayed them for three-quarters of their playoff showdown. Los Angeles also owns the toughest schedule in the NFL in terms of average win total projections for opponents, while the 49ers have a slightly easier than average schedule.

The Rams could very well take this division in 2022, but given the strength of schedule and the 49ers’ history against LA, I’ll bet the 49ers +200 as my favorite bet in the NFC West.

San Francisco 49ers To Make Playoffs Odds (Yes (-225), No (+175)

This year, there are very few sure things in the NFC. Once we get past the top three teams (Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Los Angeles), all teams have question marks. 

As I mentioned, Trey Lance’s range of outcomes is wide. His bull case could be enough to win a Super Bowl, but if defenses adjust to his dual-threat game and he struggles to throw the ball, a sub-.500 season is absolutely a possibility in San Francisco.

I think this bet is priced pretty fairly, and I’d prefer to stay off it either way – but if I had to choose a side, I’d take the 49ers not to make the playoffs at +175. I wouldn’t hate taking this bet as a hedge with a Super Bowl or Conference Championship future, just to cover your bases on the wide range of Lance outcomes.

San Francisco 49ers Win Total: o9.5 (-145)

Despite a successful playoff run, the 49ers didn’t smash this 9.5 number last year, going 10-7 in the regular season. 

In 2022, San Francisco’s schedule lines up favorably for a team with a strong finish last year. Five games on the schedule jump out as games that they should be heavily favored in:

  • @ Chicago
  • @ Carolina
  • Vs. Seattle
  • @ Atlanta
  • @ Seattle

Given that most of these games are on the road, many of the 49ers’ tougher non-divisional games (Kansas City, LA Chargers, Tampa Bay) take place in San Francisco. If the 49ers can win 4 or 5 of their easier games and two of those three tough home games, ten wins are attainable. The rest of the schedule includes games against Las Vegas, New Orleans, Miami, and Washington – San Francisco should be favored in these games. Wins at Denver or in one of their two games against the Rams and Cardinals are a distinct possibility as well.

With a not-too-tough schedule and a good chance at improving on last year’s ten-win team, I’ll take the over on 9.5 wins for San Francisco.

Favorite San Francisco 49ers Futures Bet

49ers to win the Super Bowl +1600

As I’ve said over and over again in this article, Trey Lance will dictate the outcome of the 49ers season. Lance is a volatile prospect with an extremely high ceiling but a low floor. It won’t shock me to see San Francisco struggle a bit as Lance adjusts to being a full-time NFL starter. That said, the best value to be had here is in the most extreme of outcomes – a 2022 Super Bowl championship in San Francisco.

Matthew Freedman’s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>

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