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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick

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This is the battle for the NFC West. San Francisco has been excellent this season and currently sits at a perfect 8-0. In order to don the title as the kings of the NFC West, they will have to secure a win against the Seattle Seahawks, who they have yet to face this season. Seattle is 7-2 and with two wins against the 49ers, they can take top spot in the division. Both of the Seahawks’ losses have come to teams the 49ers still have on the schedule in the Baltimore Ravens and the New Orleans Saints. This is the 49ers’ first true opportunity to prove that they are for real. Let’s dig in. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -5.5 on San Francisco. The over/under total opened at 45.5 points. The point spread has seen a slight increase to -6.5. The over/under total has risen 1.5 points to 47 even. 
  • Current Line: San Francisco -6.5
  • O/U: 47
  • Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
  • Start Time: 8:15 PM EST, Monday, November 11
  • Last Meeting: San Francisco defeated Seattle 26-23 – December 16, 2018

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Seahawks at 49ers >>

Overview

The 8-0 San Francisco 49ers are dealing with some significant injuries. Kwon Alexander, their top linebacker in coverage, is out for year. Lead blocker Kyle Juszcyzk has been injured and looks likely to miss this contest. Wide receivers Jalen Hurd and Trent Taylor have yet to play a game this season.

They made a shrewd trade deadline addition by trading for Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders has stepped in immediately as the team’s number one receiver and has brought some much-needed balance to the offense. The 49ers have faced only two teams with winning records this season. One was a Carolina Panthers team without one of their franchise players in Cam Newton. The other was a Los Angeles Rams team that has seen severe inconsistency from superstar running back Todd Gurley and quarterback Jared Goff.

This will be their first contest against a team that is all but certain to make the playoffs. The 49ers should get to the double-digit win mark this season as they still have the Falcons and the Cardinals on the schedule. Five of their other six matchups, including two against Seattle, project to be hard-fought battles. 

The Seattle Seahawks have been as impressive as ever on the offensive side of the ball and, health permitting, will be welcoming star wide receiver Josh Gordon to the lineup on Monday. Quarterback Russell Wilson has been playing at one of the highest levels of his career and is the current favorite to win the MVP Award. Chris Carson has been one of the best running backs in the league for the second straight year. Bobby Wagner is annually conversation for the top linebacker award. 2019 second-round pick D.K. Metcalf has been the most productive rookie receiver through nine weeks of action.

Seattle appears to have at least four easy wins remaining on their schedule. This should bring them to at least 11 wins on the season. They will likely have to beat the 49ers at least once to have a chance at wrestling the division crown from San Francisco. 

Trends

  • The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests between these two teams. 
  • Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 contests between these two teams. 
  • Seattle is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests in San Francisco. 
  • Over is 5-2 in the last seven contests between these two teams. 
  • Under is 5-2 in the last seven contests between these two teams played in San Francisco. 
  • Seattle is 4-5 ATS on the season.
  • Seattle is 3-1 ATS on the road this season. 
  • San Francisco is 5-3 ATS on the season. 
  • San Francisco is 2-1 ATS at home this season. 
  • Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their last four road contests against teams with a winning home record. 
  • Seattle is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four November contests. 
  • Seattle is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests. 
  • Seattle is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 Monday contests. 
  • Seattle is 0-5 ATS in their last five contests following a win ATS.
  • San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following a loss ATS. 
  • San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in their last five home contests against teams with a winning road record. 
  • San Francisco is 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests against the NFC West. 
  • San Francisco is 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Over is 4-0 in Seattle’s last four November contests. 
  • Over is 6-1 in Seattle’s last seven contests against the NFC West. 
  • Over is 10-3 in Seattle’s last 13 contests against the NFC. 
  • Over is 6-2 in Seattle’s last eight road contests. 
  • Under is 7-2 in Seattle’s last nine Monday contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five contests against the NFC West. 
  • Under is 16-6 in San Francisco’s last 22 November contests. 
  • Over is 8-3 in San Francisco’s last 11 contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Under is 12-4 in San Francisco’s last 16 home contests against teams with a winning road records. 

Prop Bets 

Chris Carson over 75 rushing yards (-113)
The 49ers have allowed over five yards per carry to opposing starting running backs in four of the eight contests they have played this season. Their 4.67 yards per carry against is the seventh-worst mark in the league. This week they will have a tough time trying to contain Chris Carson, especially with Kwon Alexander lost for the season. Chris Carson is averaging 84.9 rushing yards on the season and has cleared this total in five of his last six contests. He is averaging 101 rushing yards over those six contests. Based on his recent success, it seems that the only way Carson misses this mark as if he is held under 15 carries or is injured. This is a surprising line one would expect to have odds north of -200. In fact, another book has over 76 yards at -208. Jump on this value before PointsBet adjusts the odds. 

D.K. Metcalf over 50 receiving yards (-113)
Coming off a breakout 123-receiving yard, one-touchdown game in Week 9, it surprising that the juice on this player prop is not higher at PointsBet. Metcalf is averaging 58.3 receiving yards on the season and has cleared this total in six of his nine contests this season. Josh Gordon is expected to be active for Week 10, but will likely play limited snaps. There is some concern regarding Metcalf’s role with Gordon on the roster, but the fact is that he will likely be stealing snaps and targets from the likes of Jaron Brown and David Moore, not Metcalf. Metcalf is part of the future of this franchise, Gordon likely is not. If anything, the presence of Gordon will limit any potential safety help opposing defensive coordinators may have otherwise rolled in the direction of Metcalf when Tyler Lockett lines up in the slot. 

Bottom Line 

With the point spread for this contest sitting at +6.5 on Seattle at plus money (+105) at PointsBet, there is no question where to place our action for this contest. The moneyline is highly attractive, but the 6.5-point cushion is almost impossible to ignore. Our expert consensus agrees, as 66 percent of the experts polled have sided with Seattle for this contest. The Seahawks have the highest outright win probability of any +6.5-point underdog we will see all season. As mentioned in the trend section, the Seahawks have covered the spread in five of the last seven contests between these two teams that were played in San Francisco. They are 11-3-1 against the spread in the last 15 contests between these two teams. Seattle is the play.

Pick: Seattle +6.5 (+105)

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 10

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Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-3)
New York Giants at New York Jets (+2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5)
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.