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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Odds & Game Pick

by November 8, 2019
Drew Brees

It was just three seasons ago that the Falcons were playing in the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots. Back then, Saints versus Falcons meant a battle for NFC South supremacy. Now, the Falcons are in the midst of their second disappointing season in a row, while the Saints are arguably the best team in the NFL.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Saints -12.5; O/U 51.5. There has been very little movement.
  • Current Line: Saints -13
  • O/U: 51
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: November 22, 2018 – The Saints defeated the Falcons 31-17 in New Orleans

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Falcons at Saints >>

Overview

The New Orleans Saints have had one of their most impressive seasons ever, starting 7-1 and winning five of those games without Drew Brees. The defense has been incredible and ranks fifth in the league in total yards against. They’re allowing just 19.5 points per game and have nine turnovers on the season. While that last number isn’t overly impressive, the Saints still have a turnover differential of +3, mainly due to the outstanding play of Teddy Bridgewater in relief of Brees.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Falcons have been abysmal. They have a turnover differential of -11, and the defense has forced just four turnovers all season long. That differential is 31st in the league, while the four turnovers caused is tied with the Dolphins for the fewest in the NFL. The defense is giving up the third-most points per game at a staggering 31.3. A matchup with Drew Brees does not seem like the place to correct problems on the defensive end.

The Falcons’ offense hasn’t been terrible but has been playing from behind for most of the season. They rank in the top 10 in total yards per game, and Matt Ryan and the passing attack is the best in the NFL. Of course, that is all in terms of yardage, as the offense is averaging just 20.6 points per game which lands them in the bottom half of the league.

Trends

  • The Falcons are 2-6 ATS this season.
  • The Saints are 6-2 ATS this season.
  • The under has hit in five of Atlanta’s games this season.
  • The over and under have each hit four times in the Saints eight games this season.
  • The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.

Prop Bet

First Half Saints -7.5 (+110)
The Falcons’ offense has gained a lot of yards this season but has done so mostly because they are always trailing. Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense should have no problem scoring at will in this game, and their defense should be able to shut down the Falcons early. There could be some garbage-time points from the Falcons which would ultimately make this game look closer than it was, but for the first half the Saints should have no problem gathering a lead of more than a touchdown.

Bottom Line

This is a huge number, but it all boils down to facts. The Falcons have a decent offense, but the Saints have a great defense. The Saints have a great offense, and the Falcons have a terrible defense. The Saints should be able to score at will this week, while Atlanta should have to settle for field goals. Add to that Atlanta’s turnover issues, and this game could get very ugly very fast.

Pick: Saints -13 (-110)

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Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.