Every now and then, a new sports gaming website will pop up, and more often than not, they tend to mirror what has already been successful. Then, you get a concept like Sparlay, which is entirely innovative. Folks, I’m convinced this site is going to quickly become a big deal in the industry, to the point that Sparlay will eventually be one of the few sites that startups attempt to imitate. I’ve enjoyed trying my hand at Sparlay and developing a strategy to win. Frankly, I’ve already had a great deal of success. When they ran a two-week trial period before their official launch, I finished in first place. And since Sparlay started on December 1st, I’ve quickly climbed up to 1st place out of hundreds of contestants once again. Hopefully this will convince you that I’ve found an edge that may be able to help you win some (big) money.
Quick Game Overview
Sparlay isn’t a DFS site. It’s about sports betting but much different than a sportsbook. Instead of going through a bookie where Vegas oddsmakers set the lines and odds, it’s entirely up to you. If you see another user offering up a great betting line, you take them up on it. Vegas would never allow for that. Likewise, you can get creative and set your own lines. This is where the real edge can come in. Now, let me tell you how I’m recommending you go about it.
1) Sparlay is a big game of B.S.
You know the card game where you have to dupe the other players into believing you are putting down the three ‘4s’ or two ‘Queens’ that you say you are putting down? It’s all about telling believable lies in order to get away with robbery. The same is true of Sparlay. When I’m creating my own bets, I’m looking for games and their Vegas-suggested lines that I can spin into a line of my own that will be ‘believable’ enough for someone to take me up on it. For instance, the Thursday night Vegas line for the Bears/Cowboys game was -3 DAL. I recognized that many people on the site were offering up the Bears at +3. Clearly, the general public was all in on Dallas, thinking Vegas had made a mistake. I thought the line was solid. So solid, in fact, that I didn’t want action on either side from Vegas. But I figured someone was confident enough in the Cowboys to take me up at CHI +5.5. I was right. Similarly, I adjusted a game the previous weekend from -4 at +110 to -10 at +970. Sure, chances were, I was going to lose, but by covertly adjusting the odds from +110 (47.6%) to +970 (9.4%), I increased my potential winnings by 500%. Essentially, I needed the odds of winning my wager to be above 9.4% in order for me to hit expected ROI value. As evidenced by the +380 (20.8%) odds that Vegas was offering at -10, you can bet the expected ROI value was positive. The converse, of course, means that you need to check both the line and the odds before you accept someone’s bet. Seeing that my ‘crazy’ line was accepted, I’m assuming the person who took me up on it, either didn’t recognize that I adjusted it to +970 (intentionally below four-digits, by the way, so as to not draw their attention to my sneaking) or they weren’t familiar with how that calculates into percentage odds.
2) Parlays are the easiest way to deceive
I almost feel like a jerk writing this because, yes, I’ve taken serious advantage of people with Sparlay’s parlays. But again, that’s the game. I’ve done extremely well creating bogus 4-team parlays on three significant favorites and one comfortable favorite. As you can see below, I led off my parlay with the most reasonable lie. Vegas has the Jets at -220 favorites. I moved it to ‘just’ -170. The first line in the parlay will be the one your opponent will most remember or maybe the only one they will take the time to see. The next three heavy favorites were all adjusted from around +400 to +220ish. Again, I intentionally kept it above +200. If they see +1xx, they’ll know something is off, but with it being above 200, I’m assuming they just see it as a reasonably marked favorite and likely close, if not right at the Vegas line. Basically, I’ve gone from what Vegas would have as a +150 four-team parlay to +377 on the same teams. So I have an implied 40% chance at nearly quadrupling my money. I probably don’t need to tell you that my expected ROI value is (quite) positive with this parlay. Again, if you are on the accepting side of a parlay, be careful to check every detail of it before you put down your bet.
3) How to search the best open bet opportunities
On a 16-game slate, there are typically only 3 to 6 spreads, over/unders and moneylines combined that I love. I’ll search for those games, knowing full well what the recommended lines are from Vegas. If you want to check for yourself, you can quickly just click to create a bet and it will start you off with the Vegas recommendation. If anyone is offering up a bet better than Vegas on those lines that I love, you’d better believe I’m jumping all over it. Likewise, there are open bets that will leap off the page. For instance, someone who I can only assume was a Duke homer, was willing to wager 50 coins on Duke +1 at Michigan State. I took this without hesitation because the Vegas line was +6 for Duke. In fact, I wouldn’t have even known that if I hadn’t seen five or six other open bets offering Michigan State at that -6 mark. Now, if you were paying attention, you’d know full well that I lost that bet. With that said, the implied EV at -6 was 47% while at -1 was much closer to 70%. While you will obviously lose a 70% opportunity 30% of the time, it always makes sense to take that kind of bet when the odds are the standard +110.
4) You can climb up the leaderboard without risk
So I’ve got to be honest: my bets this month haven’t been as great as they were in November. Now, to be fair, I’m still ranked #2 out of 156 betting analysts in this year’s BettingPros Accuracy Competition, but in that, I can only play the Vegas lines. On Sparlay, I’ve taken some calculated risks that just haven’t worked out over the first week (Like the MSU/Duke game). I expect it to balance out shortly, but overall, I’m minus on the month. So how am I first on the leaderboard? Well, I invited a few friends with my referral link. For every person (up to 20) that you get to join, you’ll add 100 coins to your balance. Apparently, myself and a few others have been the only ones to take advantage of this offer. I’ve found that the best way to get friends to join is by setting a line they’ll be tempted to take you up on. You then send your referral link with that specific line and challenge them to take your coins.
- Create your bets a day in advance or in the morning so there is time for them to be accepted
- For football bets, look for injuries to key players on the O-Line or defense. The public tends to miss these in their evaluation
- For basketball bets, make sure to monitor load management. The public may miss that Kawhi or another star is going to be rested
- Don’t accept random bets just to get action. You are flushing your coins down the toilet
- Don’t give up if you lose your coins. Invite another friend and get 100 added to your account
- Be aggressive. If you want to be at the top of the leaderboard, you’ll need to take some chances
Thanks for reading and good luck! Join Sparlay for free
Bobby Sylvester is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Bobby, follow him @BobbyFantasyPro