Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets (Eagles vs. Chiefs)

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Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets (Eagles vs. Chiefs)

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 317.5 passing + rushing yards

Mahomes faces an Eagles defense that allowed just 207 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season. Mahomes is no ordinary quarterback, of course, but it's rare for Philadelphia to be torched through the air. The only quarterback to throw for 300+ yards against the Eagles this season was Dak Prescott, who had 347 passing yards against them on Christmas Eve. The next-highest yardage total for a QB against the Eagles this season: Kyler Murray with 250. Mahomes averaged 308.8 passing yards per game during the regular season but hasn't faced a pass defense as good as Philly's, which is the best in the league, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The Eagles recorded 70 regular-season sacks - the most by any team since the 1984 Chicago Bears - so Mahomes probably isn't going to have a lot of time to sit in the pocket and wait for his receivers to break open downfield. Strangely, Mahomes passing + rushing total is 23 yards higher than his passing total, which is set at 294.5. Mahomes is still dealing with a high-ankle sprain. He ran three times for eight yards last week vs. the Bengals. It's hard to imagine him doing much damage as a runner.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 48.5 rushing yards

Pacheco has exceeded this number in nine of his last 11 games, averaging 68.5 rushing yards per game over that span. He's also had double-digit carries in nine of his last 11 games. The Eagles' defense ranks No. 1 vs. the pass in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, but it ranks No. 21 vs. the run. It makes sense for Kansas City to attack Philadelphia's defensive weakness. It also makes sense for the Chiefs to use their running game to keep the Eagles' pass rush at bay. Andy Reid doesn't want those Philly pass rushers pinning their ears back and going after Mahomes, whose mobility is compromised by his high-ankle sprain. The BettingPros Prop Bet Analyzer likes this one, too, projecting Pacheco for 58.4 rushing yards and giving the over on Pacheco's rushing total a 61% chance of hitting. Two potential pitfalls: (1) The Eagles race out to a big lead, and the Chiefs have to abandon the running game while trying to close the gap through the air; and (2) the Chiefs activate Clyde-Edwards Helaire for the first time since Week 11 and go with an RB-by-committee approach. But I don't think either of those scenarios is likely.

Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets

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