Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a real contender in the NFC? That was the question I found myself asking midway through Tampa Bay’s game against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Buccaneers promptly woke up and outscored Atlanta 31-10 down the stretch to pull out a 31-27 victory.
Tampa Bay currently sits comfortably as the sixth seed in the NFC with a two-game lead in the win column over the Chicago Bears. They’ll most likely make the playoffs, but there’s an enormous advantage to earning the fifth seed over the sixth seed. The No. 5 seed in the NFC will draw a road matchup against the winner of the NFC East, as opposed to potentially traveling to Seattle or New Orleans.
The Buccaneers can’t afford to look past the lowly Lions, who are dealing with a ton of COVID-19 issues. Can the Bucs cover a big number on the road? Let’s break down this Saturday showdown:
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for the Buccaneers vs. Lions >>
Details
- Opening Line: Tampa Bay -9.5
- Last meeting: December 15, 2019, Buccaneers 38-17
 |
TB
|
-9.5
-110
|
o54
-112
|
-435
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIEW PICKS |
DET
|
+9.5
-110
|
u54
-109
|
+348
|
Overview
As of Wednesday, this game was currently off the board after the Lions placed a handful of coaches on the COVID-19 reserve list. Included in that group are interim head coach Darrell Bevell, defensive coordinator Cory Undlin, linebackers coach Ty McKenzie, and defensive backs coach Steve Gregory. Oh, and the Lions fired their special teams coach earlier in the week.
The good news is it appears no players have been placed on the COVID-19 reserve list, and the NFL still expects this game to be played Saturday at Ford Field.
It’s tough to factor in the potential absence of Bevell and the majority of the defensive staff from Saturday’s game. Detroit’s preparation will certainly be impacted. And the Lions sideline could be a disorganized mess if coaches with less experienced are forced into bigger roles.
This is also a really bad matchup for the Lions on the field. Teams that have beaten the Buccaneers have successfully flustered Tom Brady with pressure. The Lions get almost no pressure on the quarterback. Detroit has pressured the passer on just 17.4% of their dropbacks, which has led to just 19 sacks on the season.
Brady should have all day to throw, and the receiving trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown should get open all day long against Detroit’s secondary, which is allowing 7.5 net yards per pass attempt.
The Lions also don’t protect Matthew Stafford very well and have allowed 37 sacks on the season. That’s bad news against Todd Bowles, one of the most blitz-heavy defensive coordinators in the league. The Lions also don’t have enough elite weapons in the passing game to expose Tampa Bay’s mediocre secondary, which can be shredded by top-level passing offenses. Detroit also won’t find much room to run Sunday against Tampa Bay’s front seven, which is allowing just 3.4 yards per rush attempt.
Trends
- Tampa Bay is 4-3 ATS as a favorite of six points or more.
- The Buccaneers are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite in 2020.
- Detroit is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog this season.
- The Lions are 2-1 ATS since firing Matt Patricia.
Bottom Line
The Buccaneers are a really tough team to trust, especially when laying a big number on the road. I don’t view them as an elite team in the NFC, but they have the talent to beat up on inferior opponents. Detroit will offer no resistance defensively, and likely will have a poor week of preparation given what’s going on with their coaching staff.
I don’t want to lay double digits on the road with Tampa, so try to get this at Bucs -9.5 or better. We might need to strike quickly once the line is re-posted.
The pick: Buccaneers -9.5
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.