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Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, & Best Bet (2022)

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For over 20 years, NFL bettors have had to factor in Tom Brady when discussing Super Bowl favorites. 2022 will be no different. In the last few months, Brady has retired and unretired and is set to return to the field as the 45-year-old QB for the NFC favorites. The Buccaneers have had a quiet but efficient offseason, bringing in help for Brady in WRs Julio Jones and Russell Gage as they aim to offset the retirement of Hall of Fame TE Rob Gronkowski. Tampa Bay has made moves to bolster their offensive line with the acquisition of Shaq Mason, and their secondary with moves to acquire Keanu Neal and Logan Ryan.

The most impactful change for Tampa Bay may has come on the sidelines. Head Coach Bruce Arians announced his retirement and appointed DC Todd Bowles as his replacement. Bowles is a veteran coach and a respected name in Tampa but carries a career head coaching record of 26-41. Bowles appears to have an excellent rapport with Brady, but we’ll see if he can replicate Arians’ success in Tampa.

All in all, the Buccaneers should have significant continuity from last year’s team that nearly knocked off the eventual champion Rams in the playoffs. Tampa Bay scored 14 points in the final 3:20 of the game, nearly forcing overtime before LA won on a last-second field goal. The Buccaneers have as good a chance as anyone to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl in 2022, but is that the best futures bet you can make on them? Let’s break it down.

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NFL Futures Odds

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Odds Courtesy of FanDuel

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl Odds: (+750)

The Bucs have the second shortest odds of any team in the NFL to hoist the Lombardi Trophy this year, just after Buffalo (+650). This is due in large part to their advantage within their division — Tampa Bay has the best odds of any team in the NFC to win their own division. This means there is a high likelihood they’ll host at least one playoff game. The Buccaneers also have the seventh-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2022 based on forecasted win totals. This schedule is the easiest of any team to have made the playoffs in 2021. All things considered, the Bucs have an inside track to the number one seed in the NFC next season and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

If Tampa is the top seed in the playoffs, this +750 Super Bowl price tag will look like a steal. The Buccaneers will also likely be a favorite in the Super Bowl against any team they play besides Buffalo. And any time you can get a good price on Tom Brady to take home a Super Bowl, as he’s done seven times since 2001, you take it.

I’m putting my money on Brady once again and buying the Bucs’ Super Bowl chances at +750.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC Championship Odds: (+340)

For many of the reasons outlined above, I like the Bucs to win the NFC this year. Their easy schedule and divisional advantage puts them in a great position, and having the most accomplished postseason QB in history doesn’t hurt either.

Tampa Bay has two primary contenders in the NFC this year: Green Bay (+500) and the Rams (+550). Other teams like the 49ers and Cowboys could provide a challenge, but there’s a clear top tier of three NFC teams with veteran QBs and exceptional defenses. There’s a high likelihood that a playoff matchup against either of these teams would be held in Tampa, and last season the Bucs were a -3 favorite against LA before losing the game late. 

The Bucs made moves in the offseason to bolster their pass defense after Rams QB Matt Stafford torched them for 366 yards on 74% completion pct in that Divisional Round playoff game. The additions of Keanu Neal and Logan Ryan will be key in a secondary that struggled at times last year. This revamped secondary will likely line up in the playoffs against a contender that lost offensive firepower: Green Bay traded away star WR Davante Adams, while Los Angeles lost both Robert Woods and Odell Beckham this offseason.

Given my thesis that the Bucs will be the top overall seed in the NFC this year, guaranteeing them a bye and home field advantage, I love their odds in the NFC playoffs. They’ll likely only have to play one of these top two contenders and should be favored at home.

I feel good about taking the Buccaneers out of the NFC at +340.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC South Odds: (-270)

As I mentioned before, the Buccaneers have the shortest odds of any team in the NFC to win their own division. The NFC South has historically been a very competitive division. Every team in this division has appeared in a Super Bowl since 2009, and since 2015 each team in the division has had at least one division title.

That doesn’t appear to be the case this season. The Atlanta Falcons are looking at a full rebuild with the lowest projected win total in the NFL. The Carolina Panthers are looking at QB purgatory with an open competition between Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. The New Orleans Saints are relying on a speedy recovery from a torn ACL for QB Jameis Winston.

At +350 to win the NFC South, Vegas sees the Saints as being the only team with a reasonable shot at winning the division outside of Tampa Bay. They profile as a .500 team, with a preseason win total of 8.5. With WR Michael Thomas finally healthy, and the additions in the passing game of WRs Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave, the Saints have done a nice job of addressing their biggest weaknesses from last season.

Even still, with new Head Coach Dennis Allen bringing an 8-22 career coaching record to New Orleans, it would take an extreme bull case for them to knock off the Bucs and win the division. I think Tampa Bay wins this division easily assuming everyone stays healthy. 

That said, the price of -270 is pretty steep, even for Brady and the Bucs. I like them to win the division, but I’d rather take a bet with more upside to get exposure to Tampa Bay this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers To Make Playoffs: (Y -750/N +450)

As the Bucs have such a clear path to a division title, they seem to be a lock to make the playoffs in 2022. Even if they do get knocked off by New Orleans and don’t take home a division title, they’ll likely be competing with the likes of the Eagles, Vikings and Cardinals for a Wild Card spot. 

Given the Bucs have an easy schedule, a dominant team and an exceptional chance at winning the NFC, they will make the playoffs. The only way they don’t is catastrophic injury luck or a disastrous coaching performance from Todd Bowles. Their floor for wins this season if healthy is nine or 10, which should be enough to lock up a Wild Card spot at a minimum.

I like the Buccaneers to make the playoffs -750 as a parlay booster, but I don’t really see much value in this play as a standalone bet. Unless you can pepper this in with a couple of other similarly priced plays, I’d stay off this bet either way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win O/U: (11.5) 

Tampa’s 11.5 win total is the highest in the NFC. As mentioned, this is due in part to their relatively easy schedule as well as their year-over-year continuity.

The Bucs’ season starts with four difficult games — at Dallas, at New Orleans, vs. Green Bay and vs. Kansas City. This is the toughest stretch of their schedule all season, and if they can finish 2-2 they should put themselves in a good spot for the rest of the year. Tampa should be huge favorites in their remaining five divisional games — two games against Carolina and Atlanta, plus a home game against New Orleans. The Bucs also play Pittsburgh and Seattle this season, two more games where they will be heavily favored.

If they can win most of these games, they need to find just three or four wins across their remaining six games to hit 12 wins. These games — vs. Baltimore, vs. Los Angeles, at Cleveland, at San Francisco, vs. Cincinnati, at Arizona — should see the Bucs installed as light favorites.

I think Tampa Bay will go over 11.5 wins this season. That said, a 12-win season would put the Bucs in a spot to have a high seed and home field in the NFC playoffs.

I’d take this over, but I would prefer to put my money on a different futures bet to get exposure to the Bucs bull case in 2022.

My Favorite Play: Buccaneers NFC Championship (+340)

With the easiest schedule of any 2021 playoff team, a clear path to a division title and a team built for the playoffs, the Bucs are a rightful favorite out of the NFC in 2022. While +340 seems like short odds for a conference championship, I see the Bucs just needing to knock off one of the Rams or Packers in a home game to get to the Super Bowl this season. If I can get good odds on Tom Brady taking care of business at home in the playoffs, I’ll take every time.

Bet on the Bucs to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl in 2022.

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