The NFC South is closer than some might realize (on paper) as the Buccaneers visit the Saints on Sunday in New Orleans coming in just 1.5 games ahead in first place. While the future is certain for the Bucs at QB, the Saints are still trying to determine if they have their guy in first-year (Saints) starter Jameis Winston, as the post-Brees era continues on.
Let’s take a closer look at this one and see where the value remains.
- Opening Line: Saints +4, O/U 50.5
- Current Line: Saints +5, O/U 50.5
- Last meeting: January 17, 2021 – Bucs 30, Saints 20
Coming into this week with a +86 point differential, the Buccaneers trail only the Bills and Cardinals in that category and once again appear to be the team to beat in the league. The last time we saw them on the field, a 38-3 blowout vs. the Bears, the offense took yet another step forward now #1 in the league in passing yards per game (324.3) and #2 in total yards (423.4).
On the defensive side of the ball, they’ve continued to take strides as well, currently ranking #9 in total yards allowed at (332.1), but #1 in rushing defense at just 67.4 per game.
That Buc’s front seven will be put to the test this week with Alvin Kamara going against it, as the Saints rushing attack is averaging 120.5 yards per game. At the quarterback position, however, Winston has reverted to his old ways, failing to average more than 300 yards a game as the league’s 31st ranked passing offense.
- Saints 5-1 ATS in L6 vs. Bucs
- Saints 4-0 ATS in L4 coming off ATS loss
- Under 6-o in Saints L6 divisional games
It’s a real testament to what the oddsmakers think of this Saint’s defense that this line find’s itself inside of a touchdown. Allowing just 331 yards per game in its own right, the mark is good enough to rank #8 in the league, and their 16.8 points per game ranks #3.
While I do think Brady will have his way, I don’t see where the points come from the Saints, and I like for this one to remain a low-scoring affair as the afternoon goes on.
Pick: Under 50.5
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