Texans vs. Vikings NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 3)

Introducing the Week 3 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 3 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Texans vs. Vikings.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 3 Betting Primer>>

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings

Sides:

The Vikings have won each of their five previous games against the Texans.
The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games. They are 2-0 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
All but four of the Vikings' last 17 games played have been decided by eight points or less (76%).
The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs.
The Texans have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as road favorites.
The Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites (3-8 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
Nine of their last 11 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
Overall, Houston is just 10-9 against the spread over its last 19 games and 8-7-1 in road games ATS.

Totals:

Four of the Vikings’ last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
Four of the Vikings' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
The Vikings are 2-0 toward the under this season.
Teams averaged 42 points in Minnesota, 2-6-1 toward the over since the start of the 2023 season.
The Texans have gone under in 12 of their last 19 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.

Overall:

My analysis felt justified last week backing the Texans/Bears under 45 because the defenses weren't getting the respect that they deserved. For two straight weeks, Houston ranks 4^th in fewest first downs allowed. You can't run the football on their defense. Expect the Vikings to happily oblige by abandoning the run game with the third-highest pass rate over expectation through two games.

Sam Darnold - PFF's 3^rd-highest graded QB this season - will be tasked with more passing attempts than the previous two weeks.

But similar to last week, I feel the C.J. Stroud mystique with all the Texans’ weapons is overshadowing the two defenses in this game. The Vikings’ defense has been legitimate through two games. Beating the Giants isn't amazing but limiting the 49ers at home to fewer than 20 points is utterly impressive. SF was just 2 for 10 on third downs. The 49ers hadn't scored fewer than 17 points in any game since Week 8 of last season.

The Vikings have the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL (39%).

Given how well we have seen Brian Flores' defense play against offenses that follow the Kyle Shanahan scheme, I am going with the under for the second straight week in Minnesota.

If I had to bet the spread, I wouldn't take anything less than Texans -1.5. Their propensity to not cover spreads by the slimmest margins means you need to get the best number possible.

Player Props:

Stefon Diggs had six targets (17% target share), catching 4 passes for 37 yards in Week 2. Diggs has gone under 49.5 receiving yards in four straight games.

Dell failed to go over 3.5 receptions for just the second time since Week 9 of last season in Week 2.

Both Diggs and Tank Dell underwhelmed versus the Bears and have posted modest target rates (bottom 50) through two games.

However, given a matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings in Week 3, I'd expect both guys to be more involved as C.J. Stroud's quick outlet. I project Diggs to have a busy day given his low average depth of target. His receptions prop line is set at 4.5, with plus money toward the over.

The Houston Texans are a no-joke run defense.

Per Next Gen Stats, Houston allowed Bears running backs in Week 2 to gain more yards than expected on just one of 16 rushes (6.3%), their lowest rate of runs over expected since 2018. In 2023, the Texans allowed -270 RYOE to opposing running backs, the fewest in the NFL and the 3rd-fewest over the last six seasons.

With Aaron Jones in a committee with Ty Chandler, the under on his rushing yardage is the clear play here.

Nico Collins has gone over 66.5 receiving yards in six straight games. He's gone over 62.5 receiving yards in nine of his last 11 games.

My Picks: