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Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs Odds & Game Pick (2021)

by October 1, 2021
Max Duggan

The proverbial question has rung through the past several years, “Is Texas Back?” The week two performance against Arkansas showed the team has a long way to go. Still, Steve Sarkisian’s offense is starting to click, coming off a 70-point performance against Texas Tech. TCU comes into the game off disappointment, a loss to rival SMU. Gary Patterson’s team could reach a crossroads fast. the Horned Frogs follow up this game by traveling to Oklahoma in two weeks. 

Can Texas continue to roll, or can TCU pull off a season-saving upset? Time to examine from a betting aspect how this game may play out.

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Details

  • Opening Line: Texas -5, O/U 65.5
  • Current Line: Texas -5, O/U 65.5
  • Last meeting: October 3, 2020, TCU 33, Texas 31

Overview 

Texas’s offense clicked when Casey Thompson took the starting QB job from Hudson Card late in the Arkansas game. The resulting two outings were 58 points against Rice and 70 points last week against Texas Tech. Add it up, and Texas is 7th nationally in scoring offense. Card’s struggles and the subsequent move to Thompson have contributed to a 67th ranked passing offense, but that is burying the lead. The real crown jewel is RB Bijan Robinson, who leads the 24th ranked rushing offense. Robinson has lived up to all expectations totaling 581 yards and will be primed for a big game this weekend.

The defense has been a problem for this squad. 105th in scoring defense and 113th in total defense has forced the offense to keep the pedal on and ultimately put it in an impossible situation in the Arkansas game surrendering 40 points. Experienced linebackers DeMarvion Overshown and Luke Brockermeyer have led the team in tackles. The team has struggled in all facets, including generating pressure (75th in sacks) and turnovers (85th in turnovers created).

Max Duggan provides TCU with an experienced QB who has beaten Texas twice and leads the nation’s 29th best scoring offense at 37.7 ppg. Zach Evans has emerged at RB with 330 yards with the 28th ranked overall offense, powered by the 28th ranked rushing offense. Receiving production has been balanced, with five different players totaling between 161 and 89 yards. The team has done a decent job of taking care of the ball, currently ranking 51st in turnover margin nationally.  

Defensively TCU has struggled much like Texas. The team ranks 80th in total defense and 78th in allowing 25.67 points per game. The team could welcome back several missing pieces on their defense this weekend. Three members of their defensive line (Khari Coleman, Corey Bethley, and George Ellis III) could return; the most notable would be Coleman, who stood out as a freshman in 2020. The team is desperate for a spark on this side of the ball, and added talent could be it.

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Trends 

  • Over their last six games, Texas is 5-1 ATS
  • TCU is on a 4-1 ATS run against Big 12 opponents
  • In 5 of Texas’s last 6 and 4 of TCU’s previous 6, the total has gone OVER.

Bottom Line 

TCU has had Texas’s number winning seven of the last nine matchups since TCU joined the Big 12. With the announcement hitting that Texas will be leaving for the SEC, expect plenty of bad blood and a hostile environment. Look for the road environment and Duggan’s experience in a shootout to keep Texas from covering.

Pick: TCU +5

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