In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each AAC college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, MAC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each AAC college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, MAC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicates a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
2022 win totals final standings:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%
System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%
Returning starters: 6 offense, 8 defense
Tulane, the defending AAC champs, is the odds-on sportsbook favorite to repeat. One year after beating USC in the Cotton Bowl and finishing No. 9 in the AP poll, the Green Wave must replace RB Tyjae Spears. But they're in a much better situation than we thought they could be in. HC Willie Fritz spurned Georgia Tech and signed an extension, and QB Michael Pratt spurned a bevy of portal suitors led by Florida to run it back. The OL is composed of four returning starters and Cameron Wire, who started at LSU last fall. The defense returns eight starters but will miss star LB Dorian Williams.
Thor's projected win total: 9.4
Las Vegas win total: 9.5
Thor's bet: Pass
Tulane has dropped 18 spots in the power rankings since the end of last season, but my win projection still falls almost smack-dab on Las Vegas' number. That's in part because of a breezy schedule where Tulane is only a true projected underdog at home against Ole Miss. What we see as a fair representation of preseason Tulane returns no value.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| South Alabama | -8.4 | 0.79 | Home |
| Ole Miss | 7.3 | 0.25 | Home |
| Southern Miss | -10.0 | 0.82 | Away |
| Nicholls St. | -32.4 | 1.00 | Home |
| UAB | -22.3 | 1.00 | Home |
| Memphis | -0.1 | 0.50 | Away |
| North Texas | -14.0 | 0.91 | Home |
| Rice | -12.0 | 0.87 | Away |
| East Carolina | -12.7 | 0.88 | Away |
| Tulsa | -23.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| Florida Atlantic | -6.9 | 0.73 | Away |
| UTSA | -5.5 | 0.68 | Home |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense
Rhett Lashlee's first season produced a 7-6 campaign. This year, the offense must replace QB Tanner Mordecai (Wisconsin) and WR Rashee Rice (NFL), but there's still plenty of talent. New QB Preston Stone was a top-150 overall recruit, and several P5 schools would trade RB rooms with SMU in a second. And despite the loss of Ross, SMU still has the deepest group of WRs in the conference. This team's weakness is along both lines of scrimmage. The OL does return four starters and, while not elite, is certainly above average in the conference. Lashlee attacked the DL in the portal, signing two transfers from Miami and another from Oklahoma - it should be better than last year's group, but that's not a high bar to clear. There is experience in the LB group behind it, and SMU's secondary is arguably the best in the AAC.
Thor's projected win total: 9
Las Vegas win total: 8
Thor's bet: Over
SMU's talent is on the rise, and that comes at a good time, coinciding with the AAC losing three of its best programs to the Big 12. Last year, SMU played Phil Steele's No. 59 SOS. This fall, it projects to face his No. 105 SOS. That's a big part of the reason why we're so bullish on the Mustangs - a roster that has improved, facing a much easier schedule, one of the 30-easiest in the nation.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Louisiana Tech | -19.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| Oklahoma | 15.2 | 0.07 | Away |
| Prairie View A&M | -30.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| TCU | 10.1 | 0.18 | Away |
| Charlotte | -24.3 | 1.00 | Home |
| East Carolina | -10.7 | 0.84 | Away |
| Temple | -9.0 | 0.80 | Away |
| Tulsa | -20.9 | 1.00 | Home |
| Rice | -9.9 | 0.82 | Away |
| North Texas | -11.7 | 0.86 | Home |
| Memphis | 2.0 | 0.47 | Away |
| Navy | -15.5 | 0.93 | Home |
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Returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense
UTSA HC Jeff Traylor managed to keep 16 returning starters as the Roadrunners moved up from CUSA to the AAC, though he couldn't prevent star WR Zakhari Franklin from defecting to Ole Miss. The one thing softening that blow is UTSA had an embarrassment of WR riches - Joshua Cephus and De'Corian Clark are both standouts and Tykee Ogle-Kellogg is starting-caliber. UTSA has one of the G5's best backfields with QB Frank Harris and RB Kevorian Barnes. In all three of Traylor's seasons, UTSA's D has allowed between 24.6-25.9 PPG. UTSA has one of the AAC's best defenses and is likely to fall within that band again.
Thor's projected win total: 8.7
Las Vegas win total: 7.5
Thor's bet: Over
UTSA scheduled a treacherous road trip to Knoxville in late September that it is unlikely to win. The AAC schedule also concludes with an unkind trip to Tulane. Outside of those two games, my system favors UTSA in every other game (though the Houston roadies are close to a coin flip). This number feels artificially low because UTSA is "moving up" in conferences. But that knee-jerk reaction fails to take into account two crucial things: 1) The AAC took a qualitative blow when UCF, Cincy, and Houston bolted for the Big 12, and 2) UTSA immediately became one of the AAC's best teams the second it became an active member.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Houston | -0.3 | 0.50 | Away |
| Texas St. | -23.6 | 1.00 | Home |
| Army | -14.4 | 0.91 | Home |
| Tennessee | 15.6 | 0.06 | Away |
| Temple | -8.8 | 0.80 | Away |
| UAB | -18.7 | 0.99 | Home |
| Florida Atlantic | -4.7 | 0.66 | Away |
| East Carolina | -14.6 | 0.92 | Home |
| North Texas | -6.3 | 0.70 | Away |
| Rice | -13.9 | 0.90 | Home |
| South Florida | -18.0 | 0.99 | Home |
| Tulane | 5.5 | 0.32 | Away |
Returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense
QB Seth Henigan returns after throwing for 6,881 yards and a 47/16 TD/INT rate the past two years. Unfortunately, his top-four pass-catchers from last year departed, including TE Caden Prieskorn in the portal to Ole Miss (48-602-7). The RB room is loaded with Blake Watson-Jevyon Ducker-Brandon-Thomas, and it'll be running behind one of the AAC's best OLs. The defense slashed its PPG allowed from 29.3 to 26.0 last season and may have more improvement in store after that side of the ball extracted more immediate-help value from the portal than it otherwise lost to graduation and defections.
Thor's projected win total: 9
Las Vegas win total: 7.5
Thor's bet: Over
I've never been a fan of Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield, who took over a program that went 30-11 between 2017 and 2019 under Mike Norvell and has gone just 13-12 the past two seasons. But if ever there were a time for Silverfield to break out, it’s 2023. This is fully his roster, Year 4, and the schedule is built for success, rated No. 104 in Phil Steele's SOS metrics. Not only does Memphis have a manageable non-con, but the Tigers benefit from the weakened AAC, which lost three teams to the Big 12 (the Tigers also avoid the conference's best newcomer, UTSA). With our trepidation about Silverfield noted, we don't have a choice but to go over.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Bethune-Cookman | -29.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| Arkansas St. | -15.1 | 0.93 | Away |
| Navy | -14.4 | 0.91 | Home |
| Missouri | 5.9 | 0.31 | Neutral |
| Boise St. | -2.6 | 0.55 | Home |
| Tulane | 0.1 | 0.50 | Home |
| UAB | -12.5 | 0.88 | Away |
| North Texas | -5.4 | 0.68 | Away |
| South Florida | -18.2 | 0.99 | Home |
| Charlotte | -18.4 | 0.99 | Away |
| SMU | -2.0 | 0.53 | Home |
| Temple | -8.0 | 0.78 | Away |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 10 defense
Willie Taggart went 15-18 at FAU before being shown the door. New HC Tom Herman owns a career 54-22 record - including 22-4 in his previous stint in the AAC at Houston. Herman's first offense will be run by Casey Thompson, whom Herman signed as a four-star recruit at Texas in the class of 2018. FAU has a legitimate three-headed RB combo and multiple dangerous receiving weapons. The defense returns 10 starters and fortified the depth behind it with a bevy of transfers. Last year's group had a feeble pash rush and got gashed against the run. Improvements up front are expected, but that's still the unit's clear weak spot. FAU's back end is one of the strongest in the AAC.
Thor's projected win total: 7.2
Las Vegas win total: 7.5
Thor's bet: Pass
At Houston, Herman took an 8-5 team and went 13-1 in Year 1 (2015). At Texas, he improved a 5-7 team to 7-5 in Year 1 (2017). Herman's personality is grating, and because of that, he is a bit misremembered as a coach. He's upper-echelon in terms of squeezing productivity out of the talent on hand. Coincidentally, that's an area that Taggart - 31-35 over his last six years as HC - struggled in as time went on. With plenty of talent on hand, one of the G5's most-experienced rosters returning, and a quick-starting winner at the helm, improvement upon last year's 5-7 season, to me, is all but assured. I understand why the market is so bullish on FAU - it zapped any value there otherwise might have been in backing what should be a resurgent season in Boca.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Monmouth | -22.3 | 1.00 | Home |
| Ohio | -6.3 | 0.70 | Home |
| Clemson | 27.4 | 0.00 | Away |
| Illinois | 11.6 | 0.14 | Away |
| Tulsa | -13.0 | 0.89 | Home |
| South Florida | -7.3 | 0.75 | Away |
| UTSA | 4.7 | 0.34 | Home |
| Charlotte | -12.3 | 0.87 | Away |
| UAB | -6.4 | 0.71 | Away |
| East Carolina | -8.0 | 0.78 | Home |
| Tulane | 6.9 | 0.27 | Home |
| Rice | -2.8 | 0.56 | Away |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
North Texas surprisingly fired HC Seth Littrell despite playing in the AAC title game and qualifying for a third-straight bowl game. New HC Eric Morris went 24-18 at FCS Incarnate Word - 10-3 in 2021 - before leaving to become Wazzu's OC, bringing QB Cam Ward with him. Morris, who played WR for Mike Leach at Texas Tech, runs the Air Raid, albeit with a bit more of a ground element than Leach preferred. The Mean Green are currently deciding between a pair of transfer QBs, but whoever wins the starting gig is in a position to succeed quickly. UNT has a strong three-deep RB room, a quality WR corps, and the AAC's best, most experienced OL. The defense, which gave up 460.2 YPG and 6.1 YPP last year, is another story. It's returning seven starters from a bad unit - they're transitioning from a 4-2-5 into a 3-3-5 scheme.
Thor's projected win total: 6.3
Las Vegas win total: 6.5
Thor's bet: Pass
Very hard team to get a read on. On the one hand, if Morris finds his quarterback, he could field a legitimately powerful offense immediately - giving UNT a puncher's chance in any game, no matter how rancid the defense could be. On the other, quality QB play is far from guaranteed, a concerning proposition amid a scheme change, particularly when the other side of the ball is a bottom-20 national defense in 2022 undergoing its own scheme change. This is a high-variance team that I could see finishing anywhere between 3-9 and 10-2. I wouldn't bet this total with my worst enemy's money.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| California | 3.6 | 0.40 | Home |
| Florida International | -12.0 | 0.87 | Away |
| Louisiana Tech | -4.6 | 0.66 | Away |
| Abilene Christian | -20.7 | 1.00 | Home |
| Navy | -1.2 | 0.51 | Away |
| Temple | -5.2 | 0.67 | Home |
| Tulane | 14.0 | 0.09 | Away |
| Memphis | 5.4 | 0.32 | Home |
| UTSA | 6.3 | 0.30 | Home |
| SMU | 11.7 | 0.14 | Away |
| Tulsa | -7.5 | 0.76 | Away |
| UAB | -10.6 | 0.84 | Home |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 9 defense
The Owls have found their QB and built an offense around him, with a quick-passing attack that would make EJ Warner's Hall of Fame father proud. It's not an explosive aerial attack, but Warner unloads it quickly, far sooner than the rush can get to him, and he doesn't put it in harm's way. The Owls' offense was utterly one-dimensional for most of the fall but got feisty in November when a rushing attack was found - hopefully, more is coming with EJ Wilson in tow. Defensively, Temple returns a ton of experience and boasts a havoc-wreaking LB corps. But the Owls are weak up-front, and the secondary is a question mark.
Thor's projected win total: 5.6
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor's bet: Pass
Temple finished 3-9 for a second-consecutive season in 2022, but last year's group showed far more signs of life, going 8-4 ATS (Temple went 0-4 in one-possession games). The books opened Temple at 5 and, after having caught a bit of "over" action, have since toggled that to 5.5. Lo and behold, that's to the decimal point where my system spits out Temple's projection.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Akron | -10.1 | 0.82 | Home |
| Rutgers | 4.7 | 0.34 | Away |
| Norfolk St. | -18.2 | 0.99 | Home |
| Miami (FL) | 15.5 | 0.07 | Home |
| Tulsa | -4.6 | 0.66 | Away |
| UTSA | 8.8 | 0.20 | Home |
| North Texas | 5.2 | 0.33 | Away |
| SMU | 9.0 | 0.20 | Home |
| Navy | -3.5 | 0.59 | Home |
| South Florida | -2.7 | 0.55 | Away |
| UAB | -1.9 | 0.52 | Away |
| Memphis | 8.0 | 0.22 | Home |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense
You gotta give it to HC Mike Bloomgren. He took over a program that had bottomed out at 1-11 in 2017 and subsequently went 2-11, 3-9, 2-3, 4-8, and 5-8. That's the progress he's achieved despite rancid QB play. Bloomgren addressed that by signing well-traveled QB JT Daniels. Once the five-star face of USC, then Kirby Smart's hand-picked successor at Georgia, Daniels never did become the star his recruiting clipping suggested he would be. But he holds a 45/25 TD/INT rate over nearly 1,000 career attempts and will easily be Bloomgren's best QB while at Rice. Daniels has a star to work with in WR Luke McCaffrey, whose career was revitalized after switching positions from QB. This should be Bloomgren's best offense and figures to naturally correct last year's horrid turnover ratio. Each of Rice's last two defenses allowed 34+ PPG. This one returns seven starters but boasts little in the way of playmakers.
Thor's projected win total: 5.2
Las Vegas win total: 4.5
Thor's bet: Over
Rice opened at 5 before being bet down to 4.5. This is one where we disagree with the market's movement - my system's number is in line with the opener. Way I see it, a coach who has improved every year for five straight seasons finally has a QB and will field his best offense in Year 6 - plus, slight defensive improvement is likely also in the offing. I have Rice favored in six games. A 6-6 finish wouldn't be any surprise at all.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Texas | 34.1 | 0.00 | Away |
| Houston | 7.3 | 0.25 | Home |
| Texas Southern | -17.3 | 0.97 | Home |
| South Florida | -2.1 | 0.53 | Away |
| East Carolina | -2.9 | 0.56 | Home |
| UConn | -4.5 | 0.66 | Home |
| Tulsa | -4.0 | 0.64 | Away |
| Tulane | 12.0 | 0.13 | Home |
| SMU | 9.9 | 0.18 | Home |
| UTSA | 13.9 | 0.10 | Away |
| Charlotte | -7.2 | 0.74 | Away |
| Florida Atlantic | 2.8 | 0.44 | Home |
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Returning starters: 8 offense, 9 defense
In one sense, Navy (4-8 in consecutive seasons) faces a huge problem outside its control: The NCAA's ban on outside-the-box cut blocking took away the triple-option cheat code. For years undersized service academy blockers used it to negate size and athleticism disadvantages. In another sense, Navy itself is becoming the problem if the Mids continue to choose to lean on the flexbone. New OC Grant Chestnut, formerly the Kennesaw State OC, is a Paul Johnson disciple who melds spread-option concepts in with Johnson's traditional flexbone looks. Kennesaw went from 11-2 in 2021 to 5-6 last year - coincidence? Army is moving to a spread-option offense in the old Coastal Carolina-vain - not a coincidence. Until we get proof of concept that Newberry is ditching the Johnson/flexbone vestiges from his playbook, we must fade. The NCAA has all but killed it.
Thor's projected win total: 5.7
Las Vegas win total: 6.5
Thor's bet: Under
The books are having a hard time with Navy - perhaps the market is as well. Navy opened at 6.5. Across the marketplace, you can find either 5.5s or 6.5s - juiced heavily in either direction - with various sportsbooks seemingly pushing clientele in one direction or another to try to off-lay previous action to one side. If your book is hanging 6.5 still, I'm comfortable going under that number. At 5.5, my system says it's a stay away (and my heart says if the under has highly advantageous juice in your favor, I won't argue with an action bet).
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Notre Dame | 27.9 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Wagner | -17.2 | 0.97 | Home |
| Memphis | 14.4 | 0.09 | Away |
| South Florida | -6.3 | 0.70 | Home |
| North Texas | 1.2 | 0.49 | Home |
| Charlotte | -6.9 | 0.73 | Away |
| Air Force | 2.2 | 0.47 | Home |
| Temple | 3.5 | 0.41 | Away |
| UAB | -7.0 | 0.73 | Home |
| East Carolina | -2.9 | 0.56 | Home |
| SMU | 15.5 | 0.07 | Away |
| Army | -0.2 | 0.50 | Neutral |
Returning starters: 4 offense, 6 defense
ECU went 7-5 and 8-5 the last two years, respectively, after six consecutive losing seasons. The Pirates, one of only 21 programs in the nation to return 10-or-less starters, will have to regroup quickly with an inexperienced roster to avoid regressing back to previous norms. Gone is the core of QB Holton Ahlers, RB Keaton Mitchell, and WRs Isaiah Winstead and C.J. Johnson. QB Mason Garcia was a sought-after recruit. He'd better be good out of the box. There are mostly unknowns around him. Last year's run defense was solid, while the pass defense was an abomination. So perhaps it's good news that the entire DL returns while all three CBs are being replaced.
Thor's projected win total: 4.6
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor's bet: Under
ECU did itself no favors in the non-con, scheduling Michigan and a pair of upper-tier Sun Belt contenders. The AAC slate also isn't ideal. Not only does ECU get both Tulane and SMU, but it'll also play four-of-the-six newcomers, including both UTSA and FAU, on the road. I like HC Mike Houston. But what we have here is one of the nation's least-experienced rosters facing one of the G5's tougher schedules. It's hard to feel confident about ECU's odds of returning to a bowl game barring Garcia being an immediate star.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Michigan | 40.3 | 0.00 | Away |
| Marshall | 4.0 | 0.36 | Home |
| Appalachian St. | 7.3 | 0.25 | Away |
| Gardner-Webb | -16.5 | 0.96 | Home |
| Rice | 2.9 | 0.44 | Away |
| SMU | 10.7 | 0.16 | Home |
| Charlotte | -10.7 | 0.84 | Home |
| UTSA | 14.6 | 0.08 | Away |
| Tulane | 12.7 | 0.12 | Home |
| Florida Atlantic | 8.0 | 0.22 | Away |
| Navy | 2.9 | 0.44 | Away |
| Tulsa | -7.2 | 0.74 | Home |
Returning starters: 4 offense, 9 defense
Former Tennessee and UCF OC Alex Golesh takes the keys from Jeff Scott, who went 4-29 over three seasons. Golesh oversaw a pair of the country's most explosive offenses in the last two years in Knoxville. His acumen will be tested here, as USF, not loaded on offense to begin with, was hit hard on that side in the portal, losing multiple starters. Sixth-year starter QB Gerry Bohanon stuck around, perhaps for lack of a better option. Very little is set in stone around him. Last year's defense finished dead last with 516.6 YPG and 7.4 YPP allowed. So perhaps it's a tragedy that this is the side of the ball with all the returning production. If there's good news, it's that Golesh made an astute DC hire with Todd Orlando. Orlando runs a base 3-4 that morphs into a three-safety 3-3-5 look against the pass. He's a creative schemer who likes hybrid players who can be moved around. There's only one way to go for USF's defense.
Thor's projected win total: 4.1
Las Vegas win total: 4.5
Thor's bet: Pass
The market reacted strongly to USF's opening number of 3.5, having bet it up market-wide to 4.5 as of publication. My numbers say the truth is somewhere in-between, probably ending in a 4-8 season. But as close to the margins as we are, we're going to pass.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Western Kentucky | 10.2 | 0.18 | Away |
| Florida A&M | -12.8 | 0.88 | Home |
| Alabama | 33.7 | 0.00 | Home |
| Rice | 2.1 | 0.47 | Home |
| Navy | 6.3 | 0.30 | Away |
| UAB | 2.7 | 0.45 | Away |
| Florida Atlantic | 7.3 | 0.25 | Home |
| UConn | 3.7 | 0.39 | Away |
| Memphis | 18.2 | 0.01 | Away |
| Temple | 2.7 | 0.45 | Home |
| UTSA | 18.0 | 0.01 | Away |
| Charlotte | -7.0 | 0.73 | Home |
Returning starters: 3 offense, 4 defense
One of the G5's most stable programs since restarting its football program in 2017 under ex-HC Bill Clarke. Every program seeks the opposite on its next HC hire. So UAB spurned a player-led campaign to remove the interim tag from Bryant Vincent, went YOLO, and hired Trent Dilfer. Not only is Dilfer a first-year HC, but he's taking over a barren, inexperienced roster. The Blazers have the nation's fourth-least returning experience, per Phil Steele. UAB will particularly miss stars, RB DeWayne McBride and CB Starling Thomas. UAB will have a new starting QB and return zero starters along the OL. The defense has a difference-maker in DT Fish McWilliams but very little in the way of proven production around him. Expect a drop-off.
Thor's projected win total: 3.8
Las Vegas win total: 4.5
Thor's bet: Under
Dilfer's plan of using various offensive formations is a big ask to an inexperienced unit lacking continuity in Year 2. That's a big problem. On the other side of the ball, a sudden talent drop-off also meets a scheme change, presenting another. We think UAB is in for a drop-off in Dilfer's maiden voyage.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| North Carolina A&T | -13.7 | 0.90 | Home |
| Georgia Southern | 6.5 | 0.29 | Away |
| Louisiana | 1.6 | 0.48 | Home |
| Georgia | 45.8 | 0.00 | Away |
| Tulane | 22.3 | 0.00 | Away |
| South Florida | -2.7 | 0.55 | Home |
| UTSA | 18.7 | 0.01 | Away |
| Memphis | 12.5 | 0.12 | Home |
| Florida Atlantic | 6.4 | 0.29 | Home |
| Navy | 7.0 | 0.27 | Away |
| Temple | 1.9 | 0.48 | Home |
| North Texas | 10.6 | 0.16 | Away |
Returning starters: 4 offense, 5 defense
Tulsa moved on from HC Philip Montgomery after last year's 5-7 finish. In comes former Indiana HC Kevin Wilson, formerly Ohio State's OC. Tulsa lost two-year starter QB Davis Brin to Georgia Southern in the portal, but Wilson was able to convince QB Braylon Braxton to return after Braxton briefly entered the portal over the offseason. Braxton posted a 10/2 TD/INT rate over 162 attempts last year as Brin missed time with injury. Wilson is a good play-caller, and he'll have to be, as Tulsa's skill talent has been utterly depleted. On the other side of the ball, Tulsa boasts a strong, experienced secondary. But the front six of the defense is undersized, inexperienced, and shallow. The Golden Hurricanes are likely to get bullied on the ground all year.
Thor's projected win total: 3.2
Las Vegas win total: 4.5
Thor's bet: Under
September is a gauntlet, especially for a team breaking with a new coaching staff that is breaking in a new QB, with a roadie at Washington and a home game against Oklahoma. Tulsa does avoid UTSA and Memphis in AAC play but has road trips scheduled to both SMU and Tulane. Wilson dragged Indiana to respectability in his first go-round as an HC, but he only won one game in his first season. Wilson is very clearly trying to build Tulsa the same way, a multi-year approach that is willing to sacrifice Year 1 on development. We're going under.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -11.0 | 0.85 | Home |
| Washington | 35.0 | 0.00 | Away |
| Oklahoma | 27.9 | 0.00 | Home |
| Northern Illinois | 5.5 | 0.32 | Away |
| Temple | 4.6 | 0.34 | Home |
| Florida Atlantic | 13.0 | 0.11 | Away |
| Rice | 4.0 | 0.36 | Home |
| SMU | 20.9 | 0.00 | Away |
| Charlotte | -5.1 | 0.67 | Home |
| Tulane | 23.2 | 0.00 | Away |
| North Texas | 7.5 | 0.24 | Home |
| East Carolina | 7.2 | 0.26 | Away |
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Returning starters: 4 offense, 6 defense
Charlotte is starting over with a rookie 63-year-old HC (Biff Poggi). The 49ers, 29-62 over 10 FBS seasons, had the only winning record in program history in ex-HC Will Healy's first year but sagged to 3-9 last year. The defense was particularly ghastly, allowing just a shade under both 40 PPG/500 YPG). The 49ers got poached in the portal, but Poggi also got aggressive back with a radical roster transformation that ultimately netted 16 incoming transfers. FCS Bethune-Cookman transfer QB Jalon Jones, a dual-threat, is projected to start on the new-look offense. On the other side of the ball, five P5 transfers are projected to start on a defense that will likely be much improved over last year's.
Thor's projected win total: 2.5
Las Vegas win total: 2.5
Thor's bet: Over
Poggi has repeated it to anyone who will listen: He is not looking to rebuild. He wants to win immediately. He prioritized immediate-help portal acquisitions, as many from the P5 as possible. He's got a path, with Charlotte facing just Phil Steele's No. 111 SOS. But Charlotte has one of the nation's least experienced rosters, Poggi is a 63-year-old rookie HC, and the 49ers are jumping from CUSA to the superior AAC. This one could go either way - my projection falls exactly on the Vegas total.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| South Carolina St. | -7.8 | 0.77 | Home |
| Maryland | 27.9 | 0.00 | Away |
| Georgia St. | 6.1 | 0.30 | Home |
| Florida | 30.8 | 0.00 | Away |
| SMU | 24.3 | 0.00 | Away |
| Navy | 6.9 | 0.27 | Home |
| East Carolina | 10.7 | 0.16 | Away |
| Florida Atlantic | 12.3 | 0.13 | Home |
| Tulsa | 5.1 | 0.33 | Away |
| Memphis | 18.4 | 0.01 | Home |
| Rice | 7.2 | 0.26 | Home |
| South Florida | 7.0 | 0.27 | Away |
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
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