In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each CUSA college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, MAC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each CUSA college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, MAC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicates a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
2022 win totals final standings:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%
System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%
Returning starters: 7 offense, 4 defense
QB Austin Reed flirted with portal suitors early in the offseason but returned - a six-figure NIL deal with a Corvette no doubt aiding the decision-making process. Reed and WR Malachi Corley will put up video game numbers in this modified, up-tempo Air Raid system again. Corley is one of the nation's best - the NFL has a Day 2 grade on him entering the season. WKU's OL projects to be one of the conference's best units again. The defense impressed with 23.4 PPG allowed last year and a nation-high 32 takeaways, one year after it finished No. 3 with 31. But that side of the ball was hollowed out by defections over the offseasons. Only one starter returns in the front seven, though he's the defense’s best player - first-team All-CUSA EDGE JaQues Evans. I'm not going out on a limb by saying WKU will not force 32 turnovers this year with this transfer-filled lineup. Defensive regression plus a flip in turnover luck could spell a precipitous one-year defensive nosedive.
Thor's projected win total: 8.5
Las Vegas win total: 8.5
Thor's bet: Pass
The Hilltoppers are +120 to win the conference as of this writing - but keep in mind, for all CUSA-title bets this year, that only seven teams are eligible to play in the game (newcomers Sam Houston and Jacksonville State aren't eligible). WKU certainly hit the CUSA schedule right, getting both Liberty and MTSU at home. WKU has a brutal late-September OOC road-trip doubleheader at Ohio State and Troy. But outside of those two games, my system favors the 'Toppers in the other 10 regular season contests. The 8.5 number is spot-on.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| South Florida | -10.2 | 0.82 | Home |
| Houston Christian | -21.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| Ohio St. | 35.6 | 0.00 | Away |
| Troy | 6.5 | 0.29 | Away |
| Middle Tennessee | -10.7 | 0.84 | Home |
| Louisiana Tech | -4.9 | 0.66 | Away |
| Jacksonville St. | -11.0 | 0.85 | Away |
| Liberty | -5.8 | 0.69 | Home |
| UTEP | -4.7 | 0.66 | Away |
| New Mexico St. | -13.8 | 0.90 | Home |
| Sam Houston St. | -13.3 | 0.89 | Home |
| Florida International | -12.3 | 0.87 | Away |
Returning starters: 5 offense, 3 defense
New HC Jamey Chadwell went 31-6 in his last three years at Coastal Carolina after succeeding at his three previous lower-level stops. Chadwell's freeze-option RPO system has worked everywhere he's gone - its use of misdirection, multiple ball-carrier options, and varied blocking schemes tends to confuse and frustrate defenses. When those defenses invariably begin overcompensating to stop one concept or another - or when they try to sneak extra defenders into the box - Chadwell dials up downfield one-on-one play-action shots. QB Kaidon Salter would seem to be a perfect fit for the system. The skill groups are unproven, but in Chadwell’s offenses, that generally doesn't matter. The OL is above average for CUSA. Last year's defense led the FBS in TFL and was No. 3 in sacks. But it got decimated in the portal, losing several key players. Expect a drop-off.
Thor's projected win total: 8.7
Las Vegas win total: 8.5
Thor's bet: Pass
When Liberty first called Chadwell, you have to assume that, at some point later that night, he Googled the Flames' 2023 schedule. The grin that must have spread across that man's face. Per Phil Steele, the Flames play the easiest schedule in all the FBS this fall. Get this: Liberty will face zero opponents in the regular season that are ranked inside the top 75 in my preseason power rankings. Despite my trepidations about the offensive scheme change and the defense overall, I'm bullish on Liberty due to Chadwell's track record and the lightweight schedule he'll face in Year 1. We're too close to the margins on the win total to pull the trigger. Liberty to win CUSA at +240 is worth a look.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Bowling Green | -11.8 | 0.86 | Home |
| New Mexico St. | -10.8 | 0.84 | Home |
| Buffalo | -1.5 | 0.52 | Away |
| Florida Int’l | -8.9 | 0.80 | Away |
| Sam Houston St. | -10.3 | 0.83 | Home |
| Jacksonville St. | -7.6 | 0.76 | Away |
| Middle Tennessee | -7.7 | 0.76 | Home |
| Western Kentucky | 5.8 | 0.31 | Away |
| Louisiana Tech | -7.0 | 0.73 | Home |
| Old Dominion | -8.2 | 0.78 | Home |
| UMass | -18.1 | 0.99 | Home |
| UTEP | -1.3 | 0.51 | Away |
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Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
HC Dana Dimel went 2-22 his first two seasons but is 12-13 over his last two. His 2023 squad is the best he's had in El Paso. QB Gavin Hardison is a three-year starter. RB Deion Hankins is a veteran 235-pound sledgehammer. The WR corps became one of CUSA's best again the second 1,000-yard WR, Tyrin Smith, returned home after spending the spring at Texas A&M. And the OL that returns four starters is the CUSA's undisputed best. UTEP's last two defenses allowed an aggregate of 26 PPG. With this group returning seven starters and proven production along all three levels, I think they'll slash that number beneath the 25 PPG allowed in 2022. The weak spot last year was the secondary, a fact Dimel acknowledged through the portal, fortifying the group with an immediate starter from New Mexico and four depth pieces from the JUCO ranks. That group will be better, and UTEP has the CUSA's best front seven on this side of MTSU.
Thor's projected win total: 6.4
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor's bet: Over
The Miners had a snakebitten 5-7 season last year - capped by blowing a 24-point lead in the finale against UTSA that would have sent UTEP to the postseason - that derailed the momentum from the breakthrough 7-6 bowl-trip campaign in 2021. I think the Miners get back onto their previous trajectory in 2023 and make a bowl. And if you like having a few conference title longshots in your portfolio, UTEP's +1100 ticket is worth a look. Around the country, you aren't going to find many higher-than-10-to-1 shots that have a better chance to crash the party.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Jacksonville St. | -4.4 | 0.65 | Away |
| Incarnate Word | -14.0 | 0.91 | Home |
| Northwestern | 5.2 | 0.33 | Away |
| Arizona | 12.5 | 0.12 | Away |
| UNLV | -3.3 | 0.58 | Home |
| Louisiana Tech | -2.9 | 0.56 | Home |
| Florida International | -5.7 | 0.69 | Away |
| New Mexico St. | -6.7 | 0.72 | Home |
| Sam Houston St. | -2.7 | 0.55 | Away |
| Western Kentucky | 4.7 | 0.34 | Home |
| Middle Tennessee | 1.1 | 0.49 | Away |
| Liberty | 1.3 | 0.49 | Home |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 4 defense
Rotten QB play and a bottom-10 defense poisoned HC Sonny Cumbie's first season in Ruston, leading to a 3-9 finish. Cumbie's acquisition of longtime Boise State starting QB Hank Bachmeier in the portal was inspired. There's a chance for a legitimate offensive step forward because four starters return along the OL, and the Bulldogs boast the conference's best collection of skill talent. Just as Bachmeier's acquisitions through the portal may be key to an improved offense, LTU is praying the portal aids the beleaguered defense. This is a case where having only four returning starters is not a bad thing - new blood was needed, and the staff got it with double-digit transfer signings on that side. There's only one way to go after Tech coughed up 37.9 PPG last fall.
Thor's projected win total: 5.6
Las Vegas win total: 6.5
Thor's bet: Under
The market has taken an extremely bullish stance on the Bulldogs, with totals of 6 and 6.5 around the market... one year after LTU went 3-9 in Cumbie's debut. That's certainly understandable after LTU did an admirable job attacking their weaknesses over the offseason. At 6.5, this is an under play for us. At 6, we'd still lean under, but probably pass.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Florida International | -9.5 | 0.81 | Home |
| SMU | 19.1 | 0.01 | Away |
| Northwestern St. | -13.8 | 0.90 | Home |
| North Texas | 4.6 | 0.34 | Home |
| Nebraska | 19.4 | 0.00 | Away |
| UTEP | 2.9 | 0.44 | Away |
| Western Kentucky | 4.9 | 0.34 | Home |
| Middle Tennessee | 2.1 | 0.47 | Away |
| New Mexico St. | -6.5 | 0.71 | Home |
| Liberty | 7.0 | 0.27 | Away |
| Sam Houston St. | -6.0 | 0.70 | Home |
| Jacksonville St. | -3.4 | 0.59 | Away |
Returning starters: 5 offense, 8 defense
One could have been forgiven for thinking the end was nearing for HC Rick Stockstill after the Blue Raiders went 7-14 between 2019 and 2020. But MTSU has bounced back with consecutive bowl wins, going 15-11 the last two years. And so Stockstill marches on into Year 18. Last year's team was lopsided on both sides: The offense could pass but not run, while the defense stuffed the run but got ripped through the air. I've got good news and bad news. The good: The defense is going to keep shutting down every run game it faces - because five-of-seven starters in that salty front-seven return - and is also assuredly going to improve against the pass, with the secondary only having to break in one new starter. The potential bad news?: QB Chase Cunningham has graduated, and the top three WRs from last year's team have moved on, leaving the passing game this team relies on in serious question. MTSU will probably have CUSA's best defense. But the offense could be in for sharp regression unless newcomers prove capable immediately.
Thor's projected win total: 5.4
Las Vegas win total: 6.5
Thor's bet: Under
The media ranked MTSU third in its preseason CUSA poll, the same spot they sit on conference-title odds boards behind consensus favorites WKU and Liberty. Qualitatively, I disagree - I have MTSU fifth in the CUSA in my preseason PR. But that's not the only reason I like this under. MTSU scheduled a pair of paycheck games out of the gate at Alabama and Missouri. And then the conference slate opens at WKU. The Blue Raiders are very likely to leave September either 1-4 or 2-3, depending on the result of the coin-flip game against CSU. While the last seven games are far more manageable, my system projects 3.9 wins in those games. Let's call it 4-3. You can see why the math isn't working out on the over. The only way that equation flips is if QB Nick Vattiato can approximate Cunningham's production and MTSU can cobble together a quality four-man WR corps for its spread system with only one starter returning. I'm dubious.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Alabama | 39.4 | 0.00 | Away |
| Missouri | 24.0 | 0.00 | Away |
| Murray St. | -13.2 | 0.89 | Home |
| Colorado St. | 0.1 | 0.50 | Home |
| Western Kentucky | 10.7 | 0.16 | Away |
| Jacksonville St. | -7.1 | 0.74 | Home |
| Louisiana Tech | -2.1 | 0.53 | Home |
| Liberty | 7.7 | 0.24 | Away |
| New Mexico St. | -1.2 | 0.51 | Away |
| Florida International | -8.9 | 0.80 | Home |
| UTEP | -1.1 | 0.51 | Home |
| Sam Houston St. | -1.0 | 0.51 | Away |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 9 defense
Some might be looking at Sam Houston's 5-4 record in the FCS last year and thinking: There's no chance that a team that barely had a winning record in the sub-division can be viable in Conference USA one year later. Looks can be deceiving, folks. In 2021, the Bearkats went 11-1 and lost in the FCS quarterfinals. In the season prior that was moved to the spring, Sam Houston went 10-0 and won the FCS title. Last year, Sam Houston got shut out in the opener at Texas A&M, then the next weekend, had an obvious body-blow hangover in a 10-3 upset loss to Northern Arizona. Sam Houston then ripped off five straight wins, but the program was already more focused on the 2023 move to the FBS than the current season. It asked a handful of key starters to shut it down once they had appeared in their fourth game in order to retain a redshirt for an extra year of FBS football. It's probably no surprise the Bearkats ended up losing their last two games with a depleted roster. The fact of the matter is that Sam Houston had one of the FCS' most talented rosters, and it was coached by a guy with a championship ring who was one of that level's most accomplished HCs until the second the Bearkats hopped up. That man, HC KC Keeler, augmented his roster with a handful of FBS transfers over the offseason. Sam Houston could be frisky in CUSA in their first year of FBS ball.
Thor's projected win total: 4.2
Las Vegas win total: 3.5
Thor's bet: Over
The FBS newcomer Bearkats are not eligible to play in the CUSA title game this fall. But they're apparently prepared to dive into the FBS deep end immediately, having scheduled BYU, Air Force, and Houston out of the gate. Fortunately, things settled down after that. It's extremely difficult to project FCS-to-FBS jumps - you're forced to make a series of situational assumptions and leap into a projectional abyss where data does not yet exist to catch you. I ultimately pegged Sam Houston, qualitatively, in a sandwich between Akron and Nevada - which feels fair based on a series of contextual factors. My system says the Vegas total is light; we're going over.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| BYU | 20.5 | 0.00 | Away |
| Air Force | 11.6 | 0.14 | Neutral |
| Houston | 18.8 | 0.01 | Away |
| Jacksonville St. | -3.3 | 0.58 | Home |
| Liberty | 10.3 | 0.17 | Away |
| New Mexico St. | 1.4 | 0.49 | Away |
| Florida International | -5.1 | 0.67 | Home |
| UTEP | 2.7 | 0.45 | Home |
| Kennesaw St. | -9.4 | 0.81 | Home |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.0 | 0.30 | Away |
| Western Kentucky | 13.3 | 0.11 | Away |
| Middle Tennessee | 1.0 | 0.49 | Home |
Returning starters: 9 offense, 4 defense
The sportsbooks dropped a 3-win total on NMSU last year. Everyone agreed that was appropriate all the way through the end of September, when HC Jerry Kill's first Aggie team was 0-4. But then a funny thing happened - NMSU went on a tear, ending the year 7-2, including a bowl win. That clearly raised expectations for 2023. Here are the seven opponents NMSU beat last fall: Hawaii, New Mexico, UMass, FCS Lamar, Liberty, FCS Valparaiso, and Bowling Green. The Aggies played the second opponent because its scheduled game against San Jose State in October - a game it would have lost - ultimately got canceled. And because NMSU had gotten to 5-6 - by upsetting Liberty during the Flames' four-game losing streak to end the year when Hugh Freeze was doing more contract negotiating with Auburn than game-planning for Liberty - and the NCAA didn't have enough eligible bowl teams, an exemption was granted to play another FCS team, after which NMSU got the waiver that led to the bowl win over Bowling Green. This year's offense is going to be fun, with most of the same cast of characters back. I'm concerned that the defense, which returns precious little experience, could be bad.
Thor's projected win total: 5.7
Las Vegas win total: 6.5
Thor's bet: Under
Vegas dropped a mistake line of 5 at the open - perhaps because they forgot NMSU played 13 games. The market has since corrected that. But if I may - I think the market has gone too far in the other direction. For NMSU to go over, they must go 7-6 in the regular season. That only sounds super-reasonable if you don't know the very specific circumstances that led to last year's 7-6 record. It was a hand-of-god fluke we aren't going to see again anytime soon. Let's say: The holdover players on Liberty's roster are excited for Week 3, when revenge will be a dish served cold. As much as I love Jerry Kill, I've been given no choice.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| UMass | -9.1 | 0.80 | Home |
| Western Illinois | -9.2 | 0.80 | Home |
| Liberty | 10.8 | 0.16 | Away |
| New Mexico | -2.2 | 0.53 | Away |
| Hawai’i | 1.5 | 0.48 | Away |
| Florida International | -4.9 | 0.66 | Home |
| Sam Houston St. | -1.4 | 0.51 | Home |
| UTEP | 6.7 | 0.28 | Away |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.5 | 0.29 | Away |
| Middle Tennessee | 1.2 | 0.49 | Home |
| Western Kentucky | 13.8 | 0.10 | Away |
| Auburn | 30.3 | 0.00 | Away |
| Jacksonville St. | -3.1 | 0.57 | Home |
Returning starters: 9 offense, 7 defense
You're lying if you tell me you aren't ready for another spin of RichRod in the FBS. Last year, his first at JSU, Rodriguez improved JSU from 5-6 to 9-2, with the offense spiking from 22.0 to 36.2 PPG. Less than three months before season kickoff, RichRod got a huge present from the NCAA - notice that QB Zion Webb's waiver for a seventh year of eligibility had been approved. Webb is a poor passer, but he's an experienced, slippery triggerman in the spread-option offense RichRod terrorized college football with once upon a time. In sum, nine starters return on offense, and one of the projected newbies is WR Jamarye Joiner - who, heartwarmingly, was recruited to Arizona in 2018 as a three-star QB by a guy named Rich Rodriguez. The trenches on both sides of the ball are a strength, a fortunate thing when hopping up a level. But in comparison to the rest of CUSA, JSU's skill talent, and back-end defense fail to inspire. The Gamecocks can also ill-afford cluster injuries, as depth is going to be a concern in Year 1 of the FBS.
Thor's projected win total: 4
Las Vegas win total: 4
Thor's bet: Pass
As a first-year member, JSU isn't eligible to play in the CUSA title game. Like Sam Houston, JSU didn't make it easy on themselves in the non-con, with three bowl teams on the slate: Eastern Michigan, Coastal Carolina, and South Carolina. But though my system only favors JSU in one game, it also projects the Gamecocks as underdogs of less than eight points in eight games. RichRod has an experienced roster that grew leaps and bounds last fall in the FCS. If that roster can get going quickly, there are a lot of winnable games on this schedule. But since my projections fall right on the Vegas number, I'm going to pass.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| East Tennessee St. | -7.7 | 0.76 | Home |
| UTEP | 4.4 | 0.35 | Home |
| Coastal Carolina | 12.0 | 0.13 | Away |
| Eastern Michigan | 4.7 | 0.34 | Home |
| Sam Houston St. | 3.3 | 0.42 | Away |
| Middle Tennessee | 7.1 | 0.26 | Away |
| Liberty | 7.6 | 0.24 | Home |
| Western Kentucky | 11.0 | 0.15 | Home |
| Florida International | 0.3 | 0.50 | Away |
| South Carolina | 28.3 | 0.00 | Away |
| Louisiana Tech | 3.4 | 0.41 | Home |
| New Mexico St. | 3.1 | 0.43 | Away |
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Returning starters: 5 offense, 7 defense
HC Mike MacIntyre went 4-8 in Year 1, an impressive feat that jumped over FIU's pessimistic 2022 preseason win total of 2.5. FIU was actually 4-4 at the end of October before running out of gas down the stretch. Unfortunately, starters WR Tyrese Chambers, TE Rivaldo Fairweather, OT Shamar Hobdy-Lee, OT Lyndell Hudson left in the portal for the P5 (C Julius Pierce went to MTSU), and RB1 Lexington Joseph tore his ACL in the spring, a severe blow to an offense that finished No. 116 last year. QB Grayson James is experienced, and FIU added a couple of intriguing portal RBs who are likely to divvy carries. The defense allowed 37.3 PPG last year, which was actually a 2.4 PPG improvement from the season before. FIU is going to miss EDGE Shaun Peterson and LB Gaethan Bernadel, who both also transferred up to the P5. But with seven starters back and former highly-touted recruit LB Avery Huff imported from Miami, improvement is likely on that side of the ball.
Thor's projected win total: 3.2
Las Vegas win total: 3.5
Thor's bet: Pass
This team could have been interesting, but portal defections and Joseph's injury dealt a severe blow to the roster. After the dust cleared, my projections had FIU at 3.2 wins, just a shade under the Vegas number. However, we're going to pass - entirely out of respect to MacIntyre, who has made a habit of exceeding expectations and pulling off upsets.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Maine | -6.4 | 0.71 | Home |
| Louisiana Tech | 9.5 | 0.19 | Away |
| North Texas | 12.0 | 0.13 | Home |
| UConn | 10.4 | 0.17 | Awau |
| Liberty | 8.9 | 0.20 | Home |
| New Mexico St. | 4.9 | 0.34 | Away |
| UTEP | 5.7 | 0.31 | Home |
| Sam Houston St. | 5.1 | 0.33 | Away |
| Jacksonville St. | -0.3 | 0.50 | Home |
| Middle Tennessee | 8.9 | 0.20 | Away |
| Arkansas | 33.3 | 0.00 | Home |
| Western Kentucky | 12.3 | 0.13 | Away |
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