Baseball season is underway. The weather is getting warmer. Life is good. I'll be here weekly to provide you with the best MLB picks across the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We had a winning betting card last Friday, hitting multiple plus-odds bets and building some momentum. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, April 17.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 2-1 | This Season: 3-6
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
It feels like Arizona always ends up on my betting card, but it's been working so far. The Diamondbacks have been solid to start the year, going 11-8 with the 15th-most runs scored to start the season. Someone who hasn't started the year well is Blue Jays starting pitcher Eric Lauer.
The southpaw owns a 7.82 ERA across his first three starts against offenses much worse than Arizona. He's also really struggled against the Diamondbacks, allowing a .909 OPS in 62 at-bats to the expected starting lineup, including Nolan Arenado and Ketel Marte, combining for five home runs off him.
It also helps that Chase Field has the second-most favorable park factor for hitters, but the Diamondbacks team total is just too low. Feel free to bet some Arenado and/or Marte props. Arizona should mash.
Pick: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Speaking of park factors, there is no better place to score than at Coors Field, and there's arguably no better team to do it than the Los Angeles Dodgers. But we're going to go a bit deeper than that. In case you haven't heard of the man, Shohei Ohtani is very good at baseball. He owns a .910 OPS at the plate with five homers in 18 games already.
In his career, Ohtani has two at-bats against Colorado starter Tomoyuki Sugano, and he's gone deep off him twice. It also helps that Colorado’s bullpen has allowed homers at a top-10 rate so far this season, and Coors Field is even friendlier to lefties.
I know home runs are down, but this may be a little biased after earlier this week, you could have been a trillionaire if you predicted everyone who was going to have a two-home run day. Remember, it's a longshot but today, that starts with Ohtani.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani 2+ Home Runs (+1920 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guess I'm loving runs today because I'm going right back to the over in this game. Neither team in this game has exactly been killing it offensively, but the pitching matchups are too juicy to expect that trend to continue.
Chris Bassitt has a 9.00 ERA in three starts for Baltimore, allowing a .965 OPS, while Tanner Bibee has allowed 13 earned runs in 18.1 innings across his four starts. Gunnar Henderson is 4-for-9 with three extra-base hits against Bibbee, while the rest of the lineup has seen him relatively well.
On the other side, Bassitt has surrendered a .980 OPS to the expected Cleveland lineup, including Bo Naylor going 2-for-3 with two long balls off the Orioles starter (there's another multi-homer game option for you). I expect Cleveland to cruise here if you want to bet their run line at plus-money, but I prefer the over.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (-117 at theScore Bet)
