Baseball season has officially reached May, the weather is getting warmer, and life is good. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best MLB picks across the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We had a winning week last Friday, taking some metaphorical big swings. We didn't land those, but we still made some money, and I plan on keeping it going tonight. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, May 1st.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 2-1 | This Season: 7-8
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Two National League teams go to battle as the Dodgers travel to the Midwest to take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Emmet Sheehan takes the mound for Los Angeles, and his splits aren't super favorable for this matchup. He takes a step back on the road with an ERA over 5.00 in double-digit road outings compared to a 2.67 home ERA across his young career.
More prominent is how Sheehan faces lefties. Opposing left-handed batters have recorded a 1.003 OPS off him this season, and the Cardinals should post five or six lefties in their lineup today. Matthew Liberatore starts for the Cardinals, and despite being a southpaw, he faces a similar situation.
Lefties look like Barry Bonds against Liberatore this season with a 1.263 OPS in 31 at-bats. It's a small sample size, but with the powerful lefties in this Dodgers lineup, I expect to see a lot of runs and a lot of runs early. Feel free to take the game total over, but I'm jumping on the first five innings over 4.5 runs.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-110 at BetRivers)
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Next up, we have an Interleague and inter-coastal battle between the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays. Counter to the Dodgers-Cardinals, I expect the opposite to happen in this matchup.
Robbie Ray takes the bump for San Francisco, and he's been great, tallying a 2.70 ERA in the early going. Only Yandy Diaz has hit Ray well in this Rays lineup, and the southpaw has limited the expected starting lineup to a .731 OPS in his career. Not bad.
Shane McClanahan gets the start for Tampa, and he's picked back up where he left off before his 2024 injury with a 3.91 ERA. He's historically been much better at home, and only Rafael Devers has been able to see him decently in the Giants’ lineup. To start games this year, the southpaw has been nearly unstoppable, limiting opponents to a .425 OPS the first time through the order and a .627 the second time through.
I don't exactly trust the Tampa Bay bullpen in the late innings, so I'm taking the first five innings under 4.5 runs. I'm buying the hook to get to 4.5, but at plus-odds, betting on under four runs is perfectly viable as well.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-135 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
Finally, we got to the Midwest as Texas takes on the Detroit Tigers. Texas, so far, hasn't exactly been the best offense with just 3.87 runs per game, fifth-worst in baseball. They have surprising run splits, however, with 2.67 runs a game at home and five runs a game on the road.
This makes a bit of sense from how Globe Life Field is constructed, but it also drags down their overall offensive stats. Playing in Comerica Park will help already, with a top-10 park factor when it comes to run production.
Neither MacKenzie Gore nor Jack Flaherty is exactly a dangerous pitcher where I expect a lot of run prevention. This is simply a number that is too low, and both teams are due for a positive turn, where I will be buying stock early.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (-118 at BetMGM)
