The weather is getting warmer. Baseball is in literal full swing. Life is good. I'll be here once a week to provide you with the top MLB picks of the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
It was a little rough the last time out, but we're going to bounce back today. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, May 15th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 0-3 | This Season: 10-11
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians
We’ll kick things off in Cleveland, where the Guardians are -137 Moneyline favorites, and I just don’t get it. Andrew Abbott gets the ball for the Reds, and while his 4.47 ERA isn’t blowing anyone away, he's been electric of late with a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts over 17.2 innings.
The Guardians are batting .228 as a team with a poor .687 OPS. Outside of Chase DeLauter and a hot stretch from Jose Ramirez, there isn’t much in this order that scares me. Tanner Bibee counters, and even though his 4.17 ERA looks fine on paper, he is winless on the year (0-5), and the Reds have one of the more exciting top lineups in baseball.
Obviously, wins aren't exactly a pitching stat alone, but it's a trend that the Guardians haven't found a way to win when Bibee takes the mound. Elly De La Cruz is hitting .299 with 10 home runs and an .884 OPS. Sal Stewart has 10 homers of his own, and Nathaniel Lowe is sitting at an .842 OPS in the middle of the order. Getting Cincinnati at plus-odds feels like value.
Pick: Reds Moneyline (+122 at Kalshi)
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s Crosstown Classic time on the south side, and I want to bet the under here. Edward Cabrera takes the ball for the Cubs. He has a 3.88 ERA, and his swing-and-miss stuff plays up against a White Sox lineup that strikes out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball.
Sean Burke counters for Chicago and quietly owns a 3.68 ERA across his starts this season. While the Cubs are mashing as a unit, they've cooled down significantly of late. They've combined to score just five runs over their last five games.
The total has been set at 8.5, and I love that number with both starters in fine form. The weather will be nice, but it looks like the wind will be blowing in at Rate Field. Both bullpens have been good enough, but with this pitching matchup, I think we get six or seven innings of clean baseball before either gets touched.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-120 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves
Finally, we're gonna back a player prop on the one and only Spencer Strider. Strider is back and healthy for Atlanta with a 2.89 ERA across his first few starts, but the bigger story is the workload.
Strider is still being managed, coming back from an injury. Boston’s lineup, despite a rough overall .236 team average, actually grinds at-bats and ranks in the top half in pitches per plate appearance.
Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras both have OPS marks above .820 and will force Strider to work. Add in the fact that Atlanta’s bullpen has been lights out, giving manager Brian Snitker no reason to push him deep, and I’m comfortable taking the under on Spencer’s outs recorded prop.
Pick: Spencer Strider Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120 at bet365)
