There is only one MLB game on Thursday, as the Phillies host the Mets in the first game after the All-Star break. Below, I explain why I expect the offenses to have the advantage in this game and why the Mets should be able to pull off the upset. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, July 16th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
First 5 Innings Over 5.5 Runs (+100)
Phillies starter Aaron Nola enters this game with a 5.75 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. When he faced the Mets earlier this season, he struck out six batters in five innings. However, he also allowed seven hits and three runs, two of which were earned. That game was tied 3-3 after five innings.
While Mets starter Christian Scott has performed better than Nola this season, he's allowed at least three runs in two of his last four starts. One of those poor performances came in just 4.1 innings against the Phillies.
Neither offense has been great this season, with the Phillies ranking 17th in total runs and the Mets ranking 23rd. But this is the type of pitching matchup that these hitters can exploit. At +100 odds, I'll take a chance on at least one starter getting shelled early.
2+ Strikeouts in the Top of the First Inning (+260)
For my next prop, I'm actually going to back Aaron Nola, even though I don't think this will be a great start for him. For all of his struggles this season, he has recorded 102 strikeouts in 97 innings. He has at least five strikeouts in five consecutive starts, striking out at least seven batters in back-to-back appearances.
Nola has also struck out 38 Mets in 152 at-bats, an average of one strikeout for every four at-bats. One out of every three outs that Nola has recorded against this Mets lineup has come off strikeouts. While that would only put him at one strikeout in the first inning, the price is ultimately what makes me comfortable enough to pull the trigger.
The Mets aren't a strikeout-prone team, ranking right in the middle of the league in total strikeouts. But they did strike out more than once per inning against Nola in his only other start against them this season.
Mets Moneyline (+106)
I'm not surprised that the Phillies are favored, as they are the better team overall. But I also think that this is the Mets’ game to lose.
The Mets have won five of the last six games Christian Scott has started. Four of those five victories were by four or more runs. This includes a 6-2 victory over the Phillies in late June.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have lost three consecutive Nola starts and four of his last five starts overall. Opponents have scored at least 10 runs in two of Nola's last three appearances, with the Phillies being outscored 26-11 in his last three games.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.