Below, I highlight why the Arizona Diamondbacks' lackluster offense should have success against the Colorado Rockies tonight. Then, I discuss why I believe the New York Yankees will have success despite recent offensive struggles, and how the Athletics will shut down the Los Angeles Angels.
Here are the best bets for the Thursday, May 21 MLB slate.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
This Season: 10-13-1 (-2.35 units) | Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Yankees Over 4.5 Runs (+100)
The Yankees are the fourth-highest scoring team in the league, with 250 runs through 50 games. They have scored at least five runs in two of their three games against the Blue Jays this season, though they only scored one in yesterday's loss.
Braydon Fisher gets the start for the Blue Jays, but I only expect him to pitch an inning or two in this game. While the Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks ninth in the league in ERA, they still have an ERA of 3.59, so I expect the Yankees to score plenty in this game.
The only real concern is that the Blue Jays have actually done well at holding teams to very few runs in recent games. However, this is a matchup-based play, and I have to back one of the best offenses in the league against a fairly average bullpen.
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 Hits (-125)
The Diamondbacks are just an average-hitting team. They have 393 hits this season, which ranks 14th in the league, and they have a team batting average of .246. However, they're facing the worst pitching staff in baseball tonight, so I have high hopes for this lineup.
Rockies' starter Zach Agnos has allowed 31 hits in just 29.0 innings this season. He has five appearances with at least four allowed hits, including in two of his last three games. While he hasn't pitched more than 4.1 innings this season, the Rockies don't have a solid bullpen to turn things over to keep the Diamondbacks in check.
Then there is the fact that just last Friday, the Diamondbacks faced Agnos and won 9-1. In that game, they recorded 13 hits, so I'm expecting a similar result again tonight.
Los Angeles Angels Under 3.5 Runs (+100)
A's starter Luis Severino has struggled a lot this season. He gave up 10 hits and five earned runs in his last appearance, and he's given up at least four runs in four different starts this season. However, he's been much better of late. While his last start was a problem, he's allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts.
The Angels have scored only 199 runs this season, which is the sixth-fewest in the league. While Severino's latest start may give some bettors belief in this lineup, I don't see anything that justifies such a high price for the Over.
While the Angels have scored at least five runs in their last two games against the A's, this is a bad matchup for the lineup. Plus, the Angels have scored two or fewer runs in nine of their last 12 games. Give me a pitcher who has been hot except for one start over an offense that really hasn't been good at all this season.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.