There are nine games today, and I'm backing two favorites to win big. Below, I explain why both the Mets and Rays should win by multiple runs. Then, I highlight why the Padres' offense should have a huge game at Coors Field. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, September 17th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter Tanner Gordon hasn't faced the Padres this season, and though he has limited experience against this lineup, he's held them to a .250 batting average. That single stat is not enough for me to support him over the Padres' lineup in this matchup.
Gordon has been rocked in his last two starts, pitching fewer than five innings in each game and allowing 18 total hits and nine earned runs. In both of those starts, the Rockies' opponents finished with at least 10 runs.
The Padres are one of the league’s weaker offenses, ranking 21st in total runs. But Coors Field is the second-most hitter-friendly ballpark this season based on park factor. And with Gordon struggling recently and holding a 5.55 ERA entering tonight's game, I expect plenty of scoring from San Diego.
Pick: Padres Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-138)
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Nolan McLean enters this game with the league's 16th-best ERA (3.24) and a 1.18 WHIP. Though he allowed five earned runs in his last start, he's held five of his last six opponents to two or fewer runs.
Additionally, McLean's start against the Phillies this season was phenomenal. He pitched six scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and striking out 10. The Mets ultimately won that game 6-1. The Phillies are hitting just .146 against McLean in his career, and he hasn't allowed a single earned run.
Meanwhile, things haven't been quite so positive for Phillies starter Aaron Nola. He's started twice against the Mets this season, allowing multiple earned runs in each game. The Mets won each of those games by multiple runs.
Nola has pitched really well of late, holding seven consecutive opponents to two or fewer runs, but the Mets have had his number this season. For this price, I'll back New York to get the better of him again.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+150)
Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have won the first two games of their current series against the Athletics by just one run, but I expect today to be the day they blow the Athletics out. The Rays are 5-0 against the Athletics this season, with three wins by at least four runs.
The pitching matchup tells you everything you need to know about how lopsided this game is. Rays starter Drew Rasmussen enters with a 2.81 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 160 strikeouts in 160.1 innings. Meanwhile, Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs has a 5.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and just 105 strikeouts in 135 innings.
Rasmussen pitched against the Athletics in August, and while he allowed two earned runs in five innings, the Rays still won 8-4. And while Springs hasn't faced the Rays this season, he has had a rocky career against this lineup based on a limited sample size. Of 30 batters faced, he's surrendered five walks, eight hits and three doubles. The Rays are 31.5 games ahead of the Athletics in the standings, and I expect today's score to reflect that.
Pick: Rays -2.5 (+138)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.