We're nearing the All-Star Break, and I'm looking to close out the unofficial first half of the MLB season with some winning bets. Below I've listed my three favorite wagers for today's 16-game slate across Major League Baseball.
Saturday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chicago Cubs (+114) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-135) | 9.0 (-115/-105) (Game One)
The bonus game in the MLB comes courtesy of a doubleheader in St. Louis, where the Cubs and Cardinals will play at least 18 innings today. Game one features a pitching matchup between Hayden Wesneski and Lance Lynn. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO.
With a number of 9.0, this feels like an easy under bet for me. These divisional foes are constantly playing to the under, as they've seen eight of their last 10 meetings go under the total. Over the 10-game sample size, Chicago has outscored St. Louis by an average of 3.8 to 2.7, equating to just 6.50 runs per game. Something about this historic rivalry just brings the best out of each pitching staff.
As for this matchup specifically, Wesneski (3.67 ERA) is looking to build on a fantastic start, where he blanked the Angels over 6.1 innings of work. He also has solid head-to-head numbers against the Cardinals, limiting their current roster to just 3-11 (.273). As for Lynn (4.48 ERA), he has been serviceable at home this year, logging a 3.67 ERA while holding the opposition to a .215 batting average. Both starters know they'll need to eat innings today with the doubleheader, so I'm expecting adequate outings from both guys. I'm playing the under in game one in St. Louis.
Bet: Under 9.0 (-105)
Kansas City Royals (+114) vs. Boston Red Sox (-135) | 9.0 (-118/-102)
The Royals cruised to a 6-1 win in last night's series opener, marking their fourth straight victory. They'll take on the Red Sox again this afternoon, and we have a pitching matchup between Seth Lugo and Kutter Crawford. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA.
Lugo is putting together a monster season at age 34, entering the weekend at 11-3 with a 2.21 ERA (1st) and 1.04 WHIP (13th). His 110 punchouts are 24th in the MLB. The right-hander has logged five straight quality starts, and each of those games has finished with nine or fewer runs. Lugo is tasked with slowing down a Boston offense that's a pedestrian 17th in Fangraphs' wRC+ (104) over the last 14 days. Considering his form, I think he'll turn in another respectable start.
As for Crawford, he's coming off of a dominant 7.0-inning effort against the Yankees last Sunday, where he held them scoreless. This outing dropped his ERA to 3.24, which is 24th in the Majors. The right-hander has made two starts this month, posting a 0.69 ERA over 13.0 innings pitched. He'll take on a Kansas City offense that's 19th in wRC+ (101) and 16th in wOBA (.317) over the last 14 days. I think it's worth a bet on the under at this number of 9.0 runs.
Bet: Under 9.0 (-102)
Atlanta Braves (-108) vs. San Diego Padres (-112) | 7.5 (+102/-122)
We have a marquee matchup in the National League this evening as the Braves square off against Padres out west. Reynaldo Lopez will toe the rubber for the Braves, while the Padres opt for Dylan Cease. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA.
Keeping with the theme of the article, I'm taking the under in this contest. Lopez has been absolutely lights out this year, coming in at 7-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. His FIP is 3.10, the second-lowest amongst today's starting pitchers who've thrown at least 85.0 innings. Cease (4.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) is right behind Lopez on the FIP list, sitting at 3.39. Both hurlers are in great form, so I expect them to keep this game under 7.5 runs.
Offensively, neither team has been crushing the ball recently. In fact, over the last 14 days, you can easily make the argument that these are two of the MLB's bottom-tier offenses. During the last two weeks, Atlanta is 24th in wRC+ (93), 22nd in wOBA (.276), and 25th in BABIP (.276). San Diego, over the same timeframe, is 22nd (97), sixth (.299), and 23rd (.277) in those respective categories. There's a lot of star power in this N.L. matchup, but I think pitching will ultimately win the day since the offensive stars aren't performing up to their standards.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-122)
