The NBA playoffs are back! Tuesday gave us some good and some bad as far as competitiveness goes, with Denver battling their way to their second win of the series, but the Lakers blowing out the Trail Blazers. We should see two series come to an end tonight, with the Houston-OKC series being the only one played today that is competitive. We now sit at 19-7 after bouncing back prior to the boycott and will hope to continue to push towards 80 percent.
Here are my top NBA betting plays for August 29th, 2020 (Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook):
Check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here >>
Carmelo Anthony over 18.5 points (+102)
- 20 or more points in five of last 10 games
- 20 points in last five contests in which he took 13+ shots
With Damian Lillard injured and not available for the rest of the series (he left the bubble and would have to quarantine for 4-10 days upon returning), Carmelo Anthony is going to be more involved on offense. There is the closeout, blowout risk here, as both teams could rest their starters down the stretch, but the value here is hard to ignore.
This risk is actually heightened without Damian Lillard as the Blazers had enough trouble with the Los Angeles Lakers with their best player in the lineup. 18.5 points is higher than one would like for a Melo prop without Lillard, but he has hit this number in five of his last 10 contests. When Melo is more involved on offense, he reaches 20+ with regularity. He has hit 20+ points in every bubble contest in which he took 13 or more shots (five times). Keep this to one unit due to the rest risk, but be sure to put this one in before the juice sees unfavorable movement.
Carmelo Anthony over 1.5 threes (-180)
- Two or more threes in seven of last 13 contests
- Two or more threes in bubble contests with 13+ shots
The juice on this prop is reaching prohibitive territory, but with C.J. McCollum listed at 27.5 points and 3.5 three-pointers made, and no player props for the Houston-Oklahoma city game posted at the time of writing, this is the prop we will highlight. -180 suggests a high win probability, but also suggests that this is a total that has been slammed by the sharps. They may be onto something.
As noted above, Carmelo Anthony is going to have to shoulder a heavier load with Damian Lillard out. Carmelo can certainly go cold from the field at a moment’s notice, but he has managed to hit two or more threes in seven of his 13 bubble contests. He has hit two threes in every bubble game in which he took at least 13 shots, a number he is likely to cross in this contest. The risk here is that Melo eschews being a spot-up shooter and goes into attack mode, something that could result in him taking less overall threes in Game 5. With that in mind keep this play to a one-unit return.
Houston Rockets -2 first half (-133)
With Russell Westbrook set to return for Game 5 of this series, the Houston Rockets are once again the favorites. The moneyline looked highly attractive here at -188, but the -2 insulates us enough to chase the juice. The actual line is listed at -2.5, but BetMGM gives us a wealth of first half spreads to choose from. Houston has only found themselves behind at the half once all series, and while it should be close, Houston should be leading by two or more points heading into the half. Tap the Rockets for one unit.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.