The NBA season begins on Tuesday, and six of the league's best teams will take the court. Below, I explain why I don't expect much scoring when the Celtics face the Pistons, why the Knicks still have an advantage over the 76ers and who will emerge victorious when the Thunder visit the Spurs. Here are the best NBA Picks for Tuesday, October 20th.
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Tuesday's Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
Two of last season's best defensive teams meet in the first game of the NBA season, and I'm anticipating a low-scoring game.
Last season, the Celtics finished with the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing just 107.2 points per game, while the Pistons allowed 109.6, which was the third-fewest in the league.
The Celtics added Paul George to the starting lineup, and the 36-year-old averaged 17.3 points per game with the 76ers last year. While that makes him a solid addition to this lineup, he's unlikely to return to the level he was at earlier in his career, when he averaged at least 21.5 points per game for nine consecutive seasons.
That said, the main reason I love this under is how well the Pistons defended the three-point line last season. They held opponents to just 34.5% from deep, the league’s lowest rate, which should create problems for a Celtics offense that averaged 42.1 attempts per game last season. After all, while the Celtics averaged the fourth-most three-point attempts per game, they had just the 16th-best three-point shooting rate.
Pick: Under 222.5 Points (-115)
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
The defending NBA champions will raise their championship banner against the new-look 76ers, and I like the Knicks to win this game convincingly. While the 76ers have added plenty of new talent, including LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, I'm expecting some early-season struggles as the stars learn to play together.
All five of the 76ers' opening day starters averaged at least 16 points per game last season. Four averaged at least 20.9 points per game, and three averaged at least 26.9 points per game. But there is only one ball, and I want to see how this team plays when one player is hot, or when one is off his game. There's undeniable star power. On paper, the 76ers may seem like the better team, but after what the Knicks did last season, it's hard to argue they’re a more cohesive unit.
Jalen Brunson averaged 26 points per game last season, and in the postseason, he averaged 29 per game in a four-game sweep of the 76ers. Though Mitchell Robinson is now with the Celtics, the Knicks return their entire NBA Finals starting five, with Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns all set to play. In what is sure to be an electric environment, I’m giving the advantage to the Knicks over a stacked 76ers team.
Pick: Knicks -4.5 (-108)
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
The final game of Opening Day features the Spurs hosting the Thunder. Last season, the Spurs won four out of five regular-season games against the Thunder, then defeated Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. 4-3 in the Western Conference Finals. Including the postseason, the Spurs were 4-1 in home games against the Thunder.
The only real negative for the Spurs entering this game is that the newly acquired Tobias Harris is out with a calf injury. However, I don't think his absence will have much impact on an offense that averaged 119.8 points per game last season.
And while the Thunder allowed only 107.9 points per game last season, which was the second-fewest in the NBA, the Spurs averaged 114.4 points per game against them in the regular season. They scored at least 111 points in four of those five games, reaching 116+ in three of them.
Pick: Spurs Moneyline (-135)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.