With a ten-game slate on our hands, there are many player props to sort through. However, I’ve made your job easier with my top five player props for tonight’s slate. I’ve found a ton of value on the mound tonight. So let’s find out how we’re betting the hurlers tonight.
Marco Gonzales Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105)
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees 7:05 pm ET
Marco Gonzales is due for some significant regression in the second half, and we could see it here in this start against the Yankees. Gonzales enters with a 3.66 ERA but has a FIP of 5.08. Now he has to start in Yankee Stadium against the lineup that leads the majors in wRC+, OPS, and ISO against lefties. The implied numbers are not in our favor with this one, but Gonzales has about as bad a matchup as you can get, so I don’t expect him to get through six innings in the Bronx.
Patrick Corbin Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-115)
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals 7:05 pm ET
Patrick Corbin has had a rough go of it for most of this season, and tonight he’s being done no favors as he faces a red-hot Mets team that enters this series winners of six straight. These Mets have seen a ton of Corbin during his time in Washington, and there are more than a few guys who hit him very well. That should make Corbin weary going through the order. Drawing walks has been something the Mets have excelled at lately. They have seven men with above-average walk rates on the season. Pair all that with the fact that Corbin has walked at least two men in 13 of his 21 starts, and we have an excellent play.
Michael Kopech Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox 8:10 pm ET
Kopech has not exactly lived up to his minor league hype as the fireballing righty does not produce the strikeout numbers you would expect from someone with his stuff. He has gone under this total in 13 of his 18 starts, which gives us implied odds of -260 that he’ll go under again. Add in the fact that Kansas City has the ninth lowest team strikeout rate in the majors and the 10th highest BABIP. That’s a solid recipe for an under.
Luis Garcia Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros 8:10 pm ET
Luis Garcia has quietly been one of the better righties in the majors this season. He enters with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP and has racked up 107 strikeouts in 99 innings. However, it’s the strikeouts that stand out the most. Garcia’s cutter and slider have been devastating this season, as each pitch has a whiff rate over 43 percent. With the Red Sox just above league average in strikeout rate, look for Garcia to attack them with those pitches all night long. Garcia averages 5.9 strikeouts per start, but he could turn in an above-average performance. So expect this total to come in rather quickly.
Andrew Heaney Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants 9:45 pm ET
Heaney has been dominant in the four stars he’s made this season. The lefty has missed a boatload of time with multiple IL stints but has remained sharp throughout. He enters this start with a 0.47 ERA and 34.6 percent strikeout rate. He’ll face a Giants lineup that has created more wind by the Bay as the season’s gone along. San Francisco has the 13th highest strikeout rate in the majors. On top of that, this may be one of the longer outings we’ve seen from Heaney, as he should be fully stretched out. Given how good his stuff has been, he could fly over this total if we get six innings out of him.
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