It's the final week of the regular season, and motivation levels are ambiguous for a lot of teams. It's hard to tell what sort of usage players will get when their teams have nothing left to play for.
It's a treacherous landscape for player props, so we have to treads lightly. But still, I think there are a half-dozen plays we can feel good about.
Before we plunge into the Week 18 picks, a quick recap of Week 17:
Wins: Bryce Young under 200.5 passing yards, Tyler Shough over 220.5 passing yards, Adonai Mitchell under 46.5 receiving yards
Losses: Audric Estime under 32.5 rushing yards, Bucky Irving over 60.5 rushing yards, Zay Flowers over 47.5 receiving yards
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Best Week 18 NFL Player Props & Bets
Last week: 3-3 | Season record: 71-47 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet as of Thursday night.
Riley Leonard Under 174.5 Passing Yards
In his one previous start for the Colts this season, Riley Leonard completed 18-of-29 passes for 145 yards against the Jaguars. That's an average of 5.0 yards per pass attempt.
Leonard makes his second start of the season Sunday against the Texans. It's a brutal matchup for the sixth-round rookie. The Texans are giving up 200 passing yards per game and only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Their opponent passer rating of 74.8 is the lowest in the league. To put that number into perspective, Russell Wilson's passer rating this season is 77.4. (Riley Leonard's passer rating for the season: 40.8.)
The Texans are also highly motivated in this game. With a Houston win and a Jacksonville loss, the Texans could move from the No. 5 seed to the No. 3 seed. Even if the Jaguars don't lose, the Texans want to hold onto the No. 5 seed and play the winner of the feeble AFC North.
Expect the Texans to completely smother Leonard and hold him well below this number.
Lamar Jackson Over 24.5 Rushing Yards
It's been a disappointing, injury-plagued year for Lamar Jackson, and I have to believe the disappointment is baked into this rushing total for him.
Jackson is averaging 28.3 rushing yards per game this season but left two games early due to injuries. He averaged 53.8 rushing yards per game last season and has averaged 56.6 rushing yards per game for his career.
Even in a season where Jackson's rushing numbers are down and he's left a couple of games early, he's beaten this number in seven of his 12 starts.
As badly as this season has gone for the Ravens, they can still make the playoffs with a win over the Steelers on Sunday night. When he faced the Steelers in Week 14, Jackson had seven rushing attempts for 43 yards and a touchdown.
I love the Over here.
Drake London Under 67.5 Receiving Yards
If Michael Penix Jr. were still quarterbacking the Falcons, the over on this number would be an auto-bet. Alas, Penix is on injured reserve, and the Falcons are forced to play out the string with Kirk Cousins, the king of throwing short of the sticks on third-and-long, at quarterback.
Cousins has made seven starts this season, but Drake London has played in only two of them due to injuries. In the two games London has played with Cousins, he has four catches for 41 yards on 10 targets. Last week against the Rams, London drew only two targets from Cousins and had one catch for four yards.
This week, London and the Falcons face a Saints defense that hasn't given up more than 60 receiving yards to a wide receiver in any of its last five games. Take the Under.
Jalen McMillan Under 33.5 Receiving Yards
Even at a modest 33.5 yards, this number seems like an overreaction to Jalen McMillan's seven-catch, 114-yard game against the Dolphins last week.
Sidelined by a neck injury for most of the season, McMillan has played only three games. He's played somewhere from 46% to 53% of the Buccaneers' offensive snaps in all of them, as the Bucs use a four-receiver rotation that also includes Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka. It's fairly easy to make the case that McMillan is the least talented and least accomplished member of that group.
In his two previous games this season, McMillan had four catches for 53 yards on five targets.
McMillan has a Week 18 matchup against a Panthers defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers. I think the Under is a strong percentage play here.
Kenneth Gainwell Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
With DK Metcalf suspended, the Steelers have very little firepower at wide receiver for their do-or-die game against the Ravens on Sunday night. If the Steelers win, they make the playoffs. If they lose, they're out. Expect Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers to lean heavily on his running backs and tight ends in this game.
With Metcalf out last week - he was suspended two games for taking a swipe at a fan in Detroit - Gainwell had three catches for only 12 yards. However, over his last seven games, Gainwell has averaged 6.0 targets, 5.0 catches, and 42.7 receiving yards per game. He's become a lynchpin of the Pittsburgh passing game.
The Ravens have allowed the third-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to running backs. Gainwell had six catches for 27 yards against the Ravens in Week 14.
Smash the Over.
