As we begin the 2025 WNBA Semi-Finals, there are two contests across the association throughout the day. With the New York Liberty being eliminated on Friday, a new champion will be crowned. Minnesota is clearly the favorite (-170) to finish the Playoffs at the top of the mountain, but as well as know, anything can happen. Let's not waste any more time and jump right into some of our favorite WNBA picks & predictions for 9/21. Here are our top WNBA best bets for Sunday's games.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Sunday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces Under 42.5 First Quarter Points (-104)
The first contest this afternoon features two teams that average over 20 points in the first quarter over the season. The Fever averaged the highest amount of first-quarter points in the WNBA during the regular season with 22.6. On the defensive side of the floor, each team also allows over 20 points in the first quarter. Teams are connecting on the same amount of field-goal attempts, hitting 44.9% of shots taken.
The Playoffs have been a completely different story for both teams defensively. The Aces are giving up the fewest points in the first quarter (17.3), while the Fever only allowed an average of 19.7 points heading into the second quarter. Indiana and Las Vegas are scoring a combined 42.5 in the initial 10 minutes of gameplay. However, the defense for both teams has been too efficient to confidently side with the over for the opening contest in this series.
In three contests played against each other this season, the teams combined for 37.3 points through the first quarter. When these teams last met on July 24, they combined for 36 points in the first 10 minutes of gameplay.
Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces Under 163.5 Total Points (-112)
We are going to continue on the under train with the total for this contest. Indiana finished the season with the worst three-point percentage when playing on the road, with only 30.9% of attempts made. The Fever are shooting under 40% from the field over the first three Playoff games, while averaging 77.3 points in those contests.
The percentages from below the perimeter leave a lot to be desired. Yet, the shooting from beyond the arc is unfortunately even worse. Indiana is making a Playoff low 5.3 baskets from deep, and only hitting 28.6% of their attempts.
Las Vegas is shooting 40% through the first round of Playoff action, and have failed to eclipse 163.5 points in three out of the last four games played at home. Indiana has also exceeded the total point threshold for this contest in one of their last four games. In the three matchups this season, the Fever and Aces combine for an average of 151.6 points.
Indiana Fever +8 (-105)
Indiana is presented with another tough task after the team was successful in making a 0-1 comeback in the first round against the Atlanta Dream. The Fever won 11 of their 22 road games this season, and own a 1-1 record at Las Vegas in 2025.
The Fever are 3-3 in their last six road games, with a point differential of +2 over that span. Indiana is 4-3 through the previous seven contests when playing on the road as underdogs. Whereas the Aces are 1-3 in their last four home games when playing as a favorite. Las Vegas is 5-5 on the regular season in regards to covering a point spread of +8 or more this season at home.
The +8 seems somewhat ambitious considering the Indiana Fever are 2-1 against the Aces on the season. Indiana is allowing 6.5 baskets from three-point range on 28.9% shooting on the road in the 2025 Playoffs. A win for the Fever may be difficult to pull off. However, Indiana should be able to keep within eight points of this contest.
Phoenix Mercury Under Total 75.5 Team Points (-113)
The Mercury were able to dig deep in the first round, showing tremendous fight in a showdown against the defending champions, the New York Liberty. The reward for their hard-fought efforts, a matchup against the #1 seed Minnesota Lynx. Phoenix is flush with scoring options, however, they may very well struggle in the first game of the semifinal round.
Phoenix faces Minnesota for the fifth time this season, and through the first four games, the Mercury have finished with more than 75.5 points on only one occasion. Phoenix is averaging 70.3 points through those contests, on a ghastly 16.3% three-point shooting percentage.
Phoenix seems to seriously struggle against Minnesota, and have only shot higher than 40% in one of four games played against the Lynx this season. In the two matchups when Phoenix played on the road against Minnesota, the Mercury averaged 65.5 points, on 37.1% shooting from the field, and 21.4% from beyond the arc.
Minnesota Lynx -6.5 (-114)
The 2024 runner-ups head into the second round healthy and face a very formidable Phoenix squad that have completely turned around their fortunes in one off-season. Adding Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to a team that already had an elite-scoring option in Kahleah Copper resulted in the most wins in the past 10 seasons.
The Mercury are fresh off taking down the defending champs, the New York Liberty. Having said that, this Lynx team is going into the postseason with a much stronger roster than in 2024 and a well-deserved chip on their shoulder. As previously stated, Phoenix struggles mightily when playing in Minnesota this season, along with the rest of the WNBA.
The Lynx have only lost at home on two occasions this season, with one loss on their home floor in the last nine games. Minnesota is 14-7-1 at home this season against the spread. The Lynx are 5-1 against the spread as the home team in their previous six contests. Minnesota have their sights set firmly on attaining the 2025 WNBA Championship. We think they continue towards that path with a victory over Phoenix at home by more than 6.5 points.
Enjoy the games today, and good luck with your picks!
