With this week's plays, we're backing a backup QB, picking on the worst pass defense in the league, and getting our fill of Bill.
We'll get into Week 5 in a moment. But before we do, a quick recap of Week 4 ...
Wins: Trevor Lawrence under 230.5 passing yards, J.K. Dobbins over 57.5 rushing yards, David Montgomery under 50.5 rushing yards, Tetairoa McMillan under 72.5 receiving yards
Losses: Keenan Allen over 45.5 receiving yards, Brock Bowers over 52.5 receiving yards
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With this week's plays, we're backing a backup QB, picking on the worst pass defense in the league, and getting our fill of Bill.
We'll get into Week 5 in a moment. But before we do, a quick recap of Week 4 ...
Wins: Trevor Lawrence under 230.5 passing yards, J.K. Dobbins over 57.5 rushing yards, David Montgomery under 50.5 rushing yards, Tetairoa McMillan under 72.5 receiving yards
Losses: Keenan Allen over 45.5 receiving yards, Brock Bowers over 52.5 receiving yards
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
NFL Best Week 5 Player Props and Bets
Last week: 4-2 | Season record: 18-10 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet as of Thursday night.
Fields is primarily known for his mobility. His passing numbers aren't always pretty, but in a matchup against the flammable Dallas pass defense, the Over on Fields' modest passing yardage total is irresistible.
Fields has cleared this number in two of his three starts this season. He had 218 passing yards vs. the Steelers in Week 1 and 226 passing yards against the Jets in Week 4. In his other start this season, he threw for only 27 yards against the Bills in Week 2 and left the game in the fourth quarter with a concussion. That ugly Fields performance helps explain why his yardage prop is this low.
Still, the Dallas defense should help Fields clear this number. The Cowboys are giving up a league-high 309.3 passing yards per game. Opposing QBs are completing 73.3 percent of their throws against Dallas and averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt.
It won’t take pinpoint precision for Fields to clear this number against an atrocious pass defense.
Rush is starting for the Ravens in place of Lamar Jackson, who's out with a knee injury. He'll be at home against the Texans.
Rush made eight starts for the Cowboys last year after Dak Prescott sustained a season-ending injury at midseason and topped this number in six of those eight games. He averaged 209.6 passing yards in those starts — and that includes a 45-yard game against the Eagles.
The 31-year-old Rush is competent enough to clear this number, especially in a Ravens offense directed by well-regarded offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
With the Cardinals' top two running backs, James Conner and Trey Benson, both injured, Demercado and Michael Carter are expected to divide the RB workload for the Cardinals this Sunday against the Titans.
Demercado was No. 3 on the Arizona depth chart to start the season and ascended to No. 2 after Conner sustained a season-ending foot injury. He played mostly on passing downs. Now, with Benson out, Demercado is either 1a or 1b in the Cardinals' backfield.
It's possible the Cardinals keep Demercado in his passing-down role and have Carter handle most of the work on early downs. Even if that's the case, Demercado figures to at least chip in on early downs.
This is a low bar to clear, and the opponent should help. Arizona is favored by more than a touchdown against Tennessee, so the game script should be run-friendly. The Titans are allowing 117.5 rushing yards per game (third-most in the league) and 5.0 yards per carry to running backs.
The BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet loves the Over here, projecting Demercado for 38.7 rushing yards and estimating the expected value (EV) of this bet to be +32%.
With Bucky Irving expected to be out with an ankle injury, White figures to get the start at running back for the Buccaneers when they visit Seattle to face the Seahawks.
White has never been a very efficient runner; he has a career average of 3.9 yards per carry. Even when White was a starter earlier in his career, he wasn't a prolific runner. White has beaten this number in only 16 of his 40 career starts.
White has a tough matchup against a Seattle run defense that ranks third in DVOA. The Seahawks have allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards to RBs and are yielding 3.3 yards per carry.
The Commanders are deploying a messy three-man RB committee that includes Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols. Last week against the Falcons, Croskey-Merritt and Rodriguez each played 20 snaps, and McNichols played 19.
However, Croskey-Merritt, aka "Bill," has been the Commanders' best rusher by far. He's averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He has the best rushing success rate (72.4%) of any running back in the league. Croskey-Merritt's PFF grade is second-highest among qualifying running backs.
I think Bill clears this number, and the BP Prop Bet Cheat Sheet concurs, projecting Croskey-Merritt for 41.5 rushing yards.
With Jets RB Braelon Allen sidelined by a knee injury, Davis will be the primary backup to starter Breece Hall when the Jets host the Cowboys this week.
During the offseason, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn frequently talked about wanting all of the Jets' top three running backs to contribute. Davis only has five rushing attempts so far this season, but Allen had 18 rushing attempts. With Davis consolidating the backup work, he should be a good bet for at least 5-6 carries against Dallas.
BettingPros projects Davis for 21.6 rushing yards. Take the Over on 14.5.
Henderson has been sharing work with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. However, even in a committee role, the rookie has topped this number in three of his four games.
Henderson and the Patriots get a Sunday-night matchup against the Bills and their surprisingly bad run defense. Buffalo ranks 30th in DVOA against the run and is yielding 108.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry to running backs.
The electric Henderson has the potential to beat this number with one big run. I love the Over here.
In Week 2, Renfrow had seven catches for 48 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals. In his three other games this season, Renfrow has had no more than two catches or 11 receiving yards.
After being out of the league in 2024, the 29-year-old is averaging just 3.6 yards per target and 0.64 yards per route run. Simply put, Renfrow has been bad.
Smash the Under here.
Wilson has been Justin Fields' go-to receiver this season, piling up 27 catches, 311 yards and three touchdowns on a team-high 38 targets. He's averaging 77.8 receiving yards per game and has topped this number in three of his four games.
As noted above in the Justin Fields analysis, the Jets face a Dallas pass defense that has been battered in the opening month of the season. The Cowboys have allowed 827 receiving yards to wide receivers, 96 more yards than any other team. Dallas is giving up 11.2 yards per target to WRs.
Wilson should crush this number.
