After a solid weekend of college basketball betting, I'm back to give you the best plays for the start of the week. Three top-10 teams have already lost on the young season, including Kentucky, Virginia, and Villanova. If you have any friends who are "College basketball is only fun in March" believers, they are already missing out on a lot. Anyway, here are my favorite picks for today.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Stanford vs. Alabama: Stanford ML (+110)
In an exciting matchup involving two sleeper March Madness teams that I love, give me defense over offense every day of the week. While this Alabama team can get up and go, ranking sixth in pace a season ago, sometimes they get sloppy. The Crimson Tide turned the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions and could not get an offensive board to save their lives.
Alabama shoots a ton of threes and really depends on making them. That isn't great against a team like the Cardinal, who ranked 7th in defense last year and 20th versus the 3-ball. Stanford returns four starters from last year’s squad, so they shouldn't have to deal with many kinks and can keep up with Alabama's pace.
Now Stanford isn't exactly a powerhouse on offense, but they did shoot 37.3% from beyond-the-arc last year, ranking 21st best in the nation. Oh, they also have a guy named Zaire Williams now. If you don't know the name Zaire Williams, you will soon. This freshman came in as a top-five recruit and seriously adds a dynamic element to Stanford. Alabama brings in some fresh faces as well, but none are as talented as Williams, who can be a top-10 player in the nation by season’s end.
As I said before, both these teams should be dangerous come tourney time. As of now, however, Stanford has the upper hand. They have more talent, they can handle the pace and were simply a better team a season ago. Every second of this game should be exciting as I will be riding the Cardinal to cover.
Indiana vs. Providence: Indiana -1.0
The Hoosiers aren't exactly the powerhouse of years past, but they are still a sneaky good team. Returning four of five starters from a year ago, Indiana is ready to take a step forward, and they match up well with this Friars team.
The Hoosiers depend a lot on getting to the basket and drawing fouls, capitalizing from the charity stripe. During the 2019-20 season, Providence struggled at avoiding fouls, as opponents scored 21.8% of their points from the free-throw line, 60th highest in the nation.
Not only did the Hoosiers return four of five starters, but they brought in 5-star recruit Khristian Lander. The guard provides solid depth and a dynamic option for this team. Providence only returns three players who averaged more than 12 minutes a game last season, so I'm expecting a Hoosiers cover.
Long Beach State at UCLA: Long Beach State +17.5
A reason why many experts were high on UCLA this year is that they returned all five starters, but sometimes continuity isn't always a good thing. The Bruins went 19-12 a year ago and finished the season ranked 78th in KenPom.
In their only two games this season, they still look like that same team after falling to San Diego State and barely scraping by Pepperdine, a team ranked 101st in KenPom. Chris Smith is a solid player, but the Bruins lack depth and offensive prowess.
Now I must admit, Long Beach State is not an impressive team and finished last season ranked 297th in KenPom. In last year’s campaign, this was an incredibly young squad that was inconsistent but showed talent against teams like Providence, who they defeated.
After an extra season together, they should gel a lot better and with the ability to watch UCLA play two games already, they should have an extra step up. The transfers in Raymond Hawkins, Joe Hampton, and Isaiah Washington are talented options that can improve their scoring.
Speaking of scoring, Long Beach State was not good at that a year ago, but one thing they were solid at, the three-ball. For their 2019-20 campaign, LBSU shot 35.3% from beyond-the-arc, ranking 67th in the nation. UCLA, on the other hand, was awful at defending the long ball, ranking 346th defensively. I don't expect the Beach to win, but I see them being able to keep up with this Bruins squad and cover.
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.