There are some interesting games to choose from today. Monday’s game of the day features two division leaders with winning percentages over .600. We will take a look at team and pitcher form and also examine trends. When two teams on a roll clash, the lean either comes down to runs scored/allowed, the starting pitchers, or home/away records. Let’s take a look at today’s top play.
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Houston Astros | 17-11 | 3 | 4.71 | +28 |
| Minnesota Twins | 16-9 | 10 | 5.60 | +27 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Justin Verlander | 4-0 | 2.61 | 0.89 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 2-2 | 4.37 | 1.24 |
Form
The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Minnesota Twins in an evening affair. This is a battle of division leaders. The Astros sit at a terrific 17-11, while the Twins are 16-9. Both have been equally impressive in the run differential department. The Twins hold the edge in runs scored, but the Astros’ pitching staff has made up the difference. Minnesota has won three straight games and seven of its last nine. Houston has won four of its last six. It is hard to find a definitive edge in the team form arena. The Astros are the better squad with more wins, but the Twins have the better winning percentage.
Houston will send ace Justin Verlander to the mound. The Twins will counter with the volatile Jake Odorizzi. Verlander has been his dominant self this season at a sparkling 4-0 through six starts. He boasts a terrific 2.61 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has given up one run in each of his last three starts.
Odorizzi has been up and down this season. He has lacked consistency for years and is 2-2 through five starts. He has a 4.37 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP but has not endured a true blow-up game yet. Both pitchers earned wins in their previous starts against the opposing team this season. Verlander cruised through eight innings, allowing only one run in his victory over Minnesota. Odorizzi was pulled after 5.2 innings after racking up 100 pitches and surrendering two runs. The Astros hold a distinct edge in the pitcher form arena.
Trends
As expected, there are trends in favor of both teams. The Astros are 4-1 in their last five home games. They are a stellar 5-2 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home percentage above .600. They are sitting pretty at 12-5 in their last 17 against teams with a winning record and are 62-29 in their last 91 road games. The Astros are 43-19 in their last 62 games against the AL Central.
Verlander is the difference-maker in this matchup not only based on form, but trends as well. The Astros are undefeated in his last five starts in series openers. They are also undefeated in his last four starts against the AL Central. They have won their last seven of his road starts against a team with a winning record. But wait, there’s more. They are 21-4 in his last 25 road starts and are 4-1 in his last five Monday starts. They are 19-7 in his last 26 outings against teams with a winning record.
The Twins offer more of a mixed bag of trends. They are 7-1 in their last eight games against a right-handed starting pitcher. They are 5-1 in their last six contests following a win. The Twins are 29-12 in their last 41 home games against a team with a losing road record. Finally, they are 5-1 in their last six series openers. On the other side of the coin, they are 2-5 in their last seven Monday games. They are 9-19 in their last 28 games against a pitcher with a WHIP lower than 1.15. And finally, they are 6-21 in their last 27 games against the AL West. The Astros are the pick based on trends.
Line
The -170 line on this contest is better than expected. It’s one of the lowest lines you will see all season long from a Verlander start. Especially against an at-best average pitcher. The Twins have been a strong team on the season, leaving some value in today’s line. Yet Houston has fared just as well and is one of baseball’s best teams even when Verlander is not on the mound. Based on line trends, sharp action has been on the Twins. The betting public, however, is in on the Astros (63 percent). The Astros are still the lean here with Verlander on the mound.
Pick: Houston Astros
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 11-10-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.