Yet another Monday with limited attractive betting options is upon us. With no standouts in terms of value, we will focus on potential bankroll building. Today's top MLB bet features two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum. The visiting team is a playoff hopeful, while the home team will be sellers leading up to the trade deadline. The line for this contest has some appeal due to the better team playing on the road. The pitchers being sent to the mound suggest that the visiting team should be able to pull out this victory. Let’s see if our analysis agrees.
Sign up now at PointsBet and get up to $1,000 back on your first two bets! >>
Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Cleveland Indians | 57-41 | 7 | 4.58 | +45 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 38-63 | 26 | 4.37 | -79 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Mike Clevinger | 3-2 | 3.57 | 1.05 |
| Ryan Borucki | 0-0 | N/A | N/A |
Form
The Cleveland Indians are set to do battle with the Toronto Blue Jays in an evening affair. Cleveland has managed to right their ship and overcome early-season struggles scoring runs. They are still a middle-of-the-pack team overall but no longer find themselves in the basement. Top three in the league in team ERA, the Indians have a solid +45 run differential. Cleveland is 25-20 on the road this season. They have won seven of 10 since the All-Star break.
Toronto has been as poor as expected this season. The team’s lone bright spot is exciting rookie Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who appears destined to be a star in the league. The Jays have a disastrous 38-63 record thanks in no small part to scoring a measly 4.37 runs per game. Toronto has been bad all around and have actually won more games on the road this season. They are just 18-30 at home. The Jays have lost six of 10 since the All-Star break. Cleveland holds a significant edge in the team form department.
The Indians will be sending the exciting Mike Clevinger to the mound. Toronto will counter with the once somewhat promising Ryan Borucki. Clevinger has been solid this season and holds a 3-2 record with a 3.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He has struck out an eye-opening 58 batters in just 35.1 innings. Clevinger has allowed one run or less in five of his seven starts this season. He has been atrocious on the road this season where he has a nuclear 8.76 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Clevinger has faced the Jays once this season and spun five innings of shut-out ball while striking out 10. Cleveland has won four of his seven starts.
Ryan Borucki has yet to pitch this season. He went 4-6 in 17 starts as a rookie in 2018. He has not faced Cleveland to this point in his career. Borucki had a 3.87 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his rookie campaign. The Indians hold the edge in the form department.
Edge: Cleveland Indians
Trends
There are some intriguing trends in this contest, but the majority of them play out as one may expect from a battle between teams ranked seventh and 26th in our latest power rankings. With that said, we will focus on the trends that are more specific. Cleveland has won four of their last five series openers. They have won 64 of their last 90 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Cleveland has won their last four games against starters with a WHIP above 1.15.
Toronto has won six of their last eight games against the AL Central. However, that is where the good trends end. They have lost 30 of their last 44 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 29 of their last 40 games against teams with winning records. The Blue Jays have lost 16 of their last 21 Monday games, as well as 16 of their last 21 series openers. Finally, they have lost 12 of their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland holds a decided edge in the team trends arena.
Cleveland has won six of Clevinger's last seven starts against teams with losing records. They have won five of his last seven starts on four days rest. On the flip side, they have lost 11 of his last 16 road starts. They have lost 11 of his last 13 series openers. Ryan Borucki has not pitched this season but still has some trend data available due to playing for the Jays as a rookie last season. The Jays have lost four of his last five starts and five of his last seven home starts. They have lost his last four starts against teams with winning records. Cleveland holds the overall edge in the trend department.
Edge: Cleveland Indians
Line
The line for this contest has already started to move to -175 and currently sits at -180 at PointsBet. Cleveland is the superior team with the better pitcher and should be in line for a relatively easy win. They have won their last four games against the Blue Jays and have won more games on the road than the lowly Blue Jays have won at home. Clevinger is good enough to beat up on the bad teams and did just that in his start against the Jays earlier this season. Clevinger has had some road struggles so this victory is no sure thing, so be careful not to eat the juice and parlay today’s play of the day with a prohibitive favorite or some UFC action.
Pick: Cleveland Indians (-180)
Check out our PointsBet review and promo codes >>
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 27-25-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.