Today's play of the day is an interesting one. The two teams involved provide one lean, but recent form and the starting pitching options provide another. These two teams look much different based on record, and the -175 odds in yesterday’s contest reflects the true gulf that exists between these two teams at times. Let's see which lean our analysis supports.
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Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 53-53 | 15 | 5.16 | +66 |
| Miami Marlins | 40-63 | 27 | 3.66 | -102 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Merrill Kelly | 7-10 | 4.22 | 1.27 |
| Caleb Smith | 6-4 | 3.30 | 1.02 |
Form
The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to do battle with the Miami Marlins in an evening affair. Arizona started the season strong but now find themselves as the .500 club many expected coming into the season. Arizona has scored an elite level 5.16 runs per game this season, a number that actually spikes to 5.73 on the road. The Diamondbacks have a +66 run differential that ranks as the third-highest mark in the National League.
Arizona is currently 12th in the league in terms of team ERA at 4.27 runs per game. They have been better on the road this season where they hold a 30-27 record. The Diamondbacks are one of only two teams in the National League with 30 or more road wins this season. They have lost five of their last eight games, including two of the three games in this series.
Miami has crawled their way out of the basement and no longer profile as one of the worst teams in baseball. They profile much better than a 40-63 team in terms of pitching staff but have one of the worst offenses in the league. The Marlins have the worst run differential in the National League and have scored the second-fewest runs per game with only 3.55. With 20 victories, Miami has an identical number of wins at home and on the road. They have won four of their last five contests. Arizona has been the better team this season by a pretty wide margin, but the Marlins have been the better team based on recent form.
The Diamondbacks will be sending the inconsistent Merrill Kelly to the mound. Miami will be countering with the impressive Caleb Smith. Merrill Kelly has had an up-and-down season. He has a 7-10 record but sits with a solid end-of-rotation level 4.22 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Kelly has allowed three or more runs in 12 of his 21 starts this season. He has been poor on the road this season where he holds a 4-6 record through 11 starts. Kelly has a 4.68 ERA and 1.42 WHIP away from Chase Field. Kelly had a truly impressive June in which he sported a 2.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP but has been disastrous in July where he holds a 5.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through four starts. Arizona has lost his last five starts.
Caleb Smith has been a revelation for the Marlins this season and was one of the lone bright spots in the early part of the campaign. Smith is an impressive 6-4 despite playing for a team with a record under .400. He has struck out a solid 110 batters in 90 innings and has a 3.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
Robbed of an All-Star appearance in an era where every team gets at least one representative, Sandy Alcantara somehow got the nod over the electric Smith. Caleb Smith has been lights out at home this season where he holds a 4-1 record through seven starts. Smith has looked like a Cy Young candidate at home this season where he has a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He has allowed two runs or less in all but four of his 16 starts this season. Miami has won his last four starts.
Edge: Miami Marlins
Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. Arizona has won five of their last six games following a loss. They have won six of their last eight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP lower than 1.15. The Diamondback have won 19 of their last 26 road games against teams with a home winning percentage below .400. They have, however, lost their last four game fours of a series.
Miami has won four of their last five games against teams with winning road records. They have won six of their last eight after allowing two or fewer runs in their previous game. And, as mentioned above, they have won four of their last five. On the other side of the coin, they have lost six of their last eight Monday games. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Finally, they have lost 18 of their last 26 game fours of a series. Arizona holds the edge in the team form arena.
The Diamondbacks have been in murky waters in Kelly's recent starts. Arizona has lost six of his last eight road starts. They have lost four of his last five road starts against teams with a losing record and five of his last six starts on five days of rest. Finally, the Diamondbacks have lost his last five starts.
Miami has looked like a playoff team in Smith's recent starts. They have won five of his last six starts against the NL West. The Marlins have won 10 of his last 13 on five days of rest. They have won five of his last six home starts. Finally, they have won his last four starts. Miami holds the edge in the pitcher form arena.
Edge: Even
Line
The line for this contest has already started to move. It opened at +103 for the Marlins and has moved to -105, and currently sits at -110 at PointsBet. Arizona is the better team in this contest, but the starting pitchers being sent to the mound present a perceptible edge for the home team. The early money on this contest seems to agree.
Smith has been outstanding at home this season and gives the Marlins a good chance to pull out a victory every time he takes the mound. This contest is still as tight as the odds suggest as Arizona has won eight of their last 13 games against the Marlins. However, the Marlins have won two of the first three games of this series and have the superior pitcher toeing the rubber. The Marlins are the pick.
Pick: Miami Marlins (-110)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 29-26-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.