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Top MLB Bet for June 7th

by June 7, 2019

Our top MLB bet for June 7th is all about bankroll building. It is unwise to spend our efforts chasing lines in the absence of true values, and as such our top play currently sits north of -200. Our top play of the day is a battle between NL West foes. One team sits atop the division, the other sits at the bottom. The division leaders are sending one of the best pitchers in baseball to the mound. The basement dwellers are sending one of the worst. Luckily for us we get the benefit of road odds to increase the return versus what we would get if this was a home contest.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

Team Record Power Ranking Runs Scored Differential
Los Angeles Dodgers 43-20 2 5.39 +104
San Francisco Giants 25-36 27 3.86 -81

 

Pitcher Record ERA WHIP
Clayton Kershaw 5-0 3.20 1.05
Drew Pomeranz 1-6 8.08 1.67

 
Form
The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to do battle with divisional foe the San Francisco Giants. As expected, the Dodgers have been one of the most impressive teams in baseball. They currently have the best record and winning percentage in the majors. They are the only team in the top five in both runs scored and team ERA. The Dodgers have won 17 of their last 21 contests. They have been rock solid on the road where they hold an 18-13 record.

The San Francisco Giants have been far from good this season. At 25-36, they are currently owners of the seventh-worst record in baseball. They have given up far more runs than they have scored this season and have the third-worst differential in the league. Their 3.87 runs scored is the fourth-worst mark in the league. The Giants actually have a better road winning percentage this season. They have a 15-18 road record. The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14. Los Angeles has been the team in better form this season.

The Dodgers will be sending ace Clayton Kershaw to toe the rubber. The Giants will be countering with a completely overmatched Drew Pomeranz. Kershaw has had a strong start to the season even if his K/9 numbers may leave some wanting. He is 5-0 through nine starts. All nine of his starts have resulted in Dodger victories. He has a strong 3.20 ERA and a top-tier 1.05 WHIP. Kershaw is not as dominant as he was in his prime, but he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. Kershaw has actually been better on the road this season. While his 3.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are higher than his home marks, he is actually averaging over a K/9 and has a .206 BAA vs a .257 BAA at home.

Drew Pomeranz has been a complete disaster this season. He has a horrid 8.08 ERA and 1.67 WHIP thus far on the campaign. His game log is so bad one has to double check to see if he is actually a starter. He has lasted to the fifth in just three of his 10 starts. It is surprising he is still a part of the rotation. Pomeranz is 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.79 WHIP at home. He has allowed an atrocious .318 batting average against, which is somehow worse than his .316 road mark. The Dodgers have a colossal edge in the pitching form department. Los Angeles has the overall edge in terms of form.

Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers

Trends
Despite this matchup looking pretty cut and dry from a team strength standpoint, there are still some interesting trends. The Dodgers have won 45 of their last 64 Friday games and 37 of their last 53 against the NL West. They have won 42 of Clayton Kershaw’s last 51 starts against their own division. L.A. has won 20 of his last 27 Friday starts. Finally, they have won 37 of his last 51 road starts.

The Giants trends are as poor as their record suggests. They have dropped five of their last seven against the NL West. They have lost 25 of their last 33 home games against teams with a winning road record. The Giants have lost 23 of their last 30 games against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15. They are winless in their last four Friday games, as well as their last five home games. They have lost four of Pomeranz’ last five starts. The Dodgers hold a significant edge in the trends department.

Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers

Line
The line in this contest has already started to move. It has jumped from +199 to +205 and currently sits at +190 at PointsBet. -240 on the Dodgers is not the kind of line one wants to make a habit of placing action on, but as part of a parlay it possesses massive appeal. The Dodgers have won all of Clayton Kershaw’s starts this season. L.A. has won 12 of his last 16 starts against the Giants. The chances of them losing a start when they are facing an opposing pitcher with an 8.08 ERA are very slim.

Los Angeles has won 17 of their last 21 and look to be in line for an easy win against a team they have won seven of their last 10 meetings against. The Dodgers hold significant edges in both form and trends. This is a one unit play that should be utilized in a parlay with some of the weekend’s UFC action.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (+240)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 22-15-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.