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Top MLB Bet for May 13th

by May 13, 2019

Despite the light slate, there are some interesting matchups to choose from today. Finding the best value is paramount for single game bettors when presented with multiple appealing options. This matchup is a tale of two narratives. Team A has scored 5.39 runs per game and has the second highest winning percentage in the league. Team B has scored only 3.52 runs per game and has a losing record. However team A is starting a pitcher who has a 4.30 ERA. Team B is sending one of the hottest pitchers in baseball to the mound. The odds on this contest reflect this information leading to a potential good value regardless of your lean.

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Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Team Record Power Ranking Runs Scored Differential
Houston Astros 26-15 3 5.39 +69
Detroit Tigers 18-20 25 3.52 -49

 

Pitcher Record ERA WHIP
Brad Peacock 3-2 4.30 1.09
Matt Boyd 4-2 2.86 0.93


Form
The Houston Astros will do battle with the Detroit Tigers in an evening affair. The Houston Astros have been on a roll, and have won eight of their last nine games. They have won five straight, and will look to keep the good times rolling against the Tigers. The Astros have scored 5.39 runs per game on the season, and hold the largest run differential in the league. They have, however, struggled on the road where they currently hold a 10-11 record.

The Tigers have been a mixed bag this season. Despite scoring only 3.52 runs per game they have found a way to win 18 games. Their run differential of -49 suggests that their run production is what has kept them from winning more games. They managed to split their recent series with the division leading Minnesota Twins. The Tigers hold a solid 9-8 record at home. The Astros are the team in much better form.

Houston will be sending Brad Peacock to the mound. The Tigers will be countering with breakout pitcher Matt Boyd. Brad Peacock holds a 3-2 record though six starts. He has a rock solid 1.09 WHIP, but his ERA sits at 4.30. Peacock has flashed this season giving up one run or less in three of his six starts. However he has given up 15 runs in his other three starts.

Matt Boyd has been lights out this season. He has given up three runs or less in all of his starts and holds a sparkling 0.93 WHIP. He is 4-2 through eight starts, and has struck out 63 batters in 50.1 innings. While Peacock looks capable of mixing in some good starts, Matt Boyd has been the pitcher in better form this season. The Tigers hold the slight edge in this arena due to their winning record at home, and Matt Boyd getting today’s start.

Trends
The team trends paint what looks to be a definitive picture of who will win this contest. However, pitching trends suggest that this game may be tighter than one might expect. The Astros have won 49 of their last 65 games against teams with a losing record. They have won five of their last seven against left-handed starting pitchers, and are 8-3 in their last 11 Monday games. The Astros have had success against the AL Central, winning 37 of their last 52. They have won 63 of their last 92 road games against teams with a losing record.

The Astros have been rolling in Brad Peacock’s recent starts, winning eight of his last 11. They have won nine of his last 12 starts against teams with losing records, and have won 14 of his last 20 road starts. They are 7-3 in his last 10 starts against the AL Central. The Astros have won six of his last seven series openers.

On the other side of the coin the Tigers have lost 38 of their last 51 games against the AL West. They have lost 66 of their last 96 games following a win, and are winless in their last four Monday games. They have lost 22 of their last 32 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Finally, the Tigers are 20-45 in their last 65 games against a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15.

The Tigers have been a completely different team when Matt Boyd takes the mound. Boyd is 14-3 in his last 17 home starts. The Tigers have won five of their last seven against the AL West. They are an impressive 4-1 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. They hold the same record in his last five series openers, as well as in his last five starts on four days of rest. The Astros hold the edge in team trends, but the pitcher trends give no definitive lean.

Line
The lines for this contest are very appealing. -154 on the Astros when they are playing a team with a losing record is always intriguing. This is especially true when the Astros starting pitcher holds a crisp 1.08 WHIP. +134 on the Tigers in a Matt Boyd start can make anyone take notice. Vegas has taken the team vs pitcher battle into account, and has set the line accordingly. Despite three attempts, the Astros have yet to secure a win against Matt Boyd in Detroit. The public is leaning Astros and have already moved the line from +120. This is music to our ears. Matt Boyd has been lights out this season, and makes the Tigers too good of a potential value to pass up. Roll with the Tigers in our first plus money single game play of the season.

Pick: Detroit Tigers

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 16-11-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.