We have a busy Monday on tap in MLB, with 13 games on the docket. Let’s break down the best opportunities to have some fun and cash out on an NRFI bet for Monday evening’s slate.
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
The first place Astros head to Fenway to take on the last-place Red Sox in a three-game series. Jake Odorizzi will open up the series on the mound for Houston. Odorizzi has a 3.38 ERA through his first six 2022 starts and has gone over 15 consecutive innings without allowing a run. He has also not allowed a run in the first inning in his last three starts. Garrett Whitlock will start the game on the hill for the Red Sox. Whitlock has a 2.19 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP through 24.2 innings this season. He has not allowed a run in the first inning in his three starts this year.
Both of these offenses rank in the bottom ten in baseball in runs scored per game in the first inning. Houston is averaging just 0.4 runs per game in the first inning and is hitting just .229 as a team this season. Boston is putting up a mere 0.38 runs per game in the first inning this year, as well as ranking in the league’s bottom ten in runs scored per game (3.71) and OPS (.644).
Red Sox NRFIs are 11-1 in Boston’s last 12 games. Houston has scored a run in the first inning in just one of its last nine contests. We have two pitchers on the mound who are off to very solid seasons and have not gotten roughed up in the first inning as of late. Neither of these offenses are overpowering. I’m all over this NRFI at even odds.
Bet: NRFI (+100 at DraftKings)
Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins
The first-place Twins head west for a three-game series with the last-place A’s. The newly acquired Chris Archer will make his seventh start of the season on Monday night for Minnesota. While Archer has just a 4.43 ERA for the season, he has a sub-four career ERA and has only allowed a run in the first inning in one of his first six starts in 2022. Rookie Zach Logue will make his third career start for Oakland. Logue has allowed just two earned runs through his first 13.1 MLB innings and is coming off of a start in which he tossed seven shutout innings in Detroit.
Both of these teams rank in baseball’s bottom ten in runs scored per game. Minnesota is averaging just 3.91 runs per game and just 3.0 runs per game over its last ten games. Oakland is third-to-last in runs scored per game this season with 3.30 and ranks last in baseball as a team in terms of batting average (.200).
I see plenty of value on this NRFI at -130. Archer has been great in the first inning and the Oakland offense has been among the worst in baseball this season. Logue has looked terrific to start his MLB career and the Minnesota lineup has struggled to put runs on the board, especially as of late.
Bet: NRFI (-130 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Two NL West foes open up a four-game series in L.A. on Monday evening. Madison Bumgarner will get the ball to kick off the series for Arizona. Bumgarner has been superb through his first seven 2022 starts. He currently holds a 1.78 ERA and has not allowed more than two runs in any start this season. Tony Gonsolin will be on the hill for the Dodgers Monday evening. Gonsolin has looked just as good, if not better than Bumgarner through the first month and a half of the season. Gonsolin has a 1.33 ERA – allowing just four earned runs over his first six 2022 starts. He has yet to allow a run in the first inning this year as well.
Offensively, the D-Backs rank towards the bottom of the league in just about every statistical category. Arizona is putting up just 3.54 runs per game in 2022 (26th in MLB) and is hitting just .204 as a team (29th in MLB).
While the Dodgers have undoubtedly been one of the best teams in baseball at the plate this year, Los Angeles has only scored in the first inning in just two of its last nine games.
I would be shocked if Gonsolin allowed his first first-inning run of the season to a lineup as lackluster as Arizona’s. At -115, I’ll bet on Bumgarner to keep the Dodgers off of the board in the first inning as well.
Bet: NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)
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