The weather around the country is soaring, and so are the MLB total. But today, I’ve pinpointed two games that are primed to stumble out of the gates. Perhaps the best thing about these picks is that they will be happening simultaneously. So both you and I will have quite a sweat at 9:40 eastern.
Let’s dive in and find out why these two matchups will get off to particularly slow starts this evening.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics at 9:40 pm ET
This game has the potential to be the pitching matchup of the evening as Cristian Javier of Houston will square off against Frankie Montas, Oakland’s ace. Javier has been tremendous so far this season, as you could argue that he’s been the best starter on Houstons’s staff. He enters this start with a 2.43 ERA and WHIP of 0.97. He has been a complex puzzle to solve for opposing hitters thus far, as his fastball-slider combination is one of the best in the game. Javier is in the top 30 percent of the league in each expected stat category and also ranks in the top-12 percent of all qualified pitchers in whiff and strikeout rate.
Today he gets one of the worst lineups in baseball as the Athletics enter this matchup second to last in the majors in wRC+ and are also dead last in team batting average.
However, for all of Javier’s early-season success, his counterpart in this one has been pretty tough to hit too. Given how great he’s been, Frankie Montas will enter this start with a 3.28 ERA, expected to be 2.84. Montas may have a 2-4 record, but he has done more than his part. He ranks in the top 20 percent of the league in every expected category and is amongst the top 25 percent in strikeout, whiff, and chase rate.
As for how he’ll fare in this start, chances are he’ll hold the Astros’ bats quiet early on. Houston may be a top-10 lineup, but they have struggled early as they tend to get off to slow starts. They’ll enter this matchup 23rd in first-inning runs per game. These two should post matching zeros to start this one.
Pick: NRFI -143
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks at 9:40 pm ET
You will need a second screen this evening as my second NRFI play takes place at the same time as the first one. In this matchup, Charlie Morton will face off against Humberto Castellanos. Morton has had his shares of ups and downs through the first two months of the season as he enters with a 4.10 ERA. The 38-year-old has had a few showings where he looked as dominant as ever, but his command has failed him in most of his starts. Command issues have led to mistakes both in and out of the zone.
As a result, all of his expected stats are in the bottom third of the league, but he still possesses excellent stuff as his spin rates are elite. Facing the Diamondbacks lineup might be the thing to get him back on track as they come in sporting the second-worst team average in the Majors and are 25th in wRC+.
Humberto Castellanos has been sneaky good for Arizona this season. His 5.22 ERA may beg to differ, but that is expected to be 4.50, which is inflated due to two rough starts against the Dodgers and Cardinals. Castellanos is not a player who will overpower hitters as his fastball sits at 90 mph. He relies on his breaking stuff to produce soft contact, and he has done that relatively well thus far. He ranks in the top 40 percent in hard-hit and barrel rates.
What benefits him the most this evening is the lineup in front of him. The defending World Series champions have not gotten it going offensively as they are middle of the pack in run production and lead the majors in strikeout rate. Also, for our purposes, they are 26th in first-inning runs per game. Expect a quick opening inning.
Pick: NRFI -106
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