(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Cincinnati Reds (+120) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-142) O/U 8
(First Pitch 1:36 p.m. ET)
Both the Pirates and Reds seem to be in rebuilding mode, especially the Reds as they are the only team that has not reached ten wins.
For the Reds, the offense has done well as they're in the top half of the league in runs per game, but the pitching is by far the worst in the league. Their team ERA is at 6.26, which is nearly two runs higher than the next team, along with allowing the most walks per nine and home runs.
The Reds’ will have Hunter Greene on the mound, and while he hits 100+ MPH on the radar like it's no problem, it's getting hit even harder. He has just three pitches in his arsenal (four-seamer, changeup, slider), but throwing the fastball on 56.8% is having hitters gear up for it. With its lack of movement, it's easy to put the barrel to the ball.
On the flip side, Jose Quintana has been the bright spot in a struggling Pittsburgh rotation. By far, he's leading the starters with a 2.70 ERA and 1.200 WHIP. With many years playing in the National League, specifically in the Central, he's seen this team many times. In 98 at-bats this current roster is hitting just .255 off him with a 26.0% strikeout rate. Pittsburgh will end this series with a convincing win.
Leg 1: Pirates ML
Houston Astros (-210) vs. Washington Nationals (+176)
(First Pitch 1:36 p.m. ET)
We conclude this rematch of the 2019 World Series with two pitchers that played a massive part in it.
The Houston Astros have continued to be a championship contender after that loss a couple of years, while the Nationals have not even come close to the playoffs recently.
Justin Verlander, even at 39 years old, continues to be one of the best in the game. He has been almost untouchable as he comes into this start with a league-leading 0.639 WHIP and 4.4 hits allowed per nine. He's still one of the best at keeping hitter’s timing off with that fastball and the 12-to-6 curveball that he throws at an astonishing 17 MPH difference.
For the Nationals, while they’re fourth in batting (.256), it hasn't resulted in overall production as they're 17th in runs per game (4.03). Taking into account how bad the pitching has been, that's why they have a run differential of -35.
Patrick Corbin has not been good since his first season in Washington. Since 2020 he's 11-28 with a 5.57 ERA and last year had a major league-worst 16 losses, gave up 111 earned runs, and 37 home runs. It's more of the same in 2022 with a 6.06 ERA and 11.0 hits allowed per nine. Corbin's pitches are well below the league's average in vertical and horizontal movements and it's allowed hitters to basically tee him up and get great swings off of him. Houston should be excited as they're near the top in isolated power this season.
Leg 2: Astros -1.5
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox O/U 8
(First Pitch 2:10 p.m. ET)
The Yankees are emerging as one of the top contenders as they're a league-best 24-8. And have won 17 of their last 20. One of the more well-balanced teams in the league, their hitting, starting pitching, and bullpen are putting up some of the best numbers in the league.
They will have Nestor Cortez on the mound who has been their most consistent pitcher this season. He has a 1.41 ERA, a 0.9969 WHIP and in his last start took a no-hitter into the seventh against Texas. Cortez has been able to use that cutter better than ever before as it gets late movement with batters hitting .189 off it this year.
The White Sox will counter with their best in Michael Kopech. He's coming in with an ERA of just 0.93 and a WHIP of 0.966 but didn't get his first quality start until last week. It was the first time he pitched into the sixth inning.
Both of these pitchers have been nearly impossible to hit. Both opponents have good lineups, but they've pitched well against some other really good offensive teams. The total of eight is too high for this pitching matchup.
Leg 3: Under 8
Total parlay odds on FanDuel: +477
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