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Top NBA Betting Picks for Thursday, February 18

by February 18, 2021

After a busy slate last night, we have only three games on tap for this evening. While we don’t have a wide array of games to pick from, you can at least tune in live to MIL/TOR and BKN/LAL through TNT to watch your bets play out.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Thursday, February 18, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

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Betting Lock of the Day

Sirois: Raptors +6 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

It’s always a challenge to find value on a three-game slate. Fortunately, oddsmakers have gifted us a generous spread for the Raptors. This game hinges upon Jrue Holiday’s status; if he plays, the Raptors may have a harder time keeping up — they fell to the Bucks by seven when Holiday back in January. That said, Holiday’s status remains uncertain, and I doubt that he’ll play a ton of minutes in his first game back from COVID-19. Toronto sunk the Bucks by an 11-point margin on Tuesday, and they should at least keep this one within six. My efficiency-based model, which puts recent performance at a premium, expects a very narrow Milwaukee win, so Toronto should cover as six-point dogs tonight.

Top Team Prop of the Day

Sirois: Raptors First Quarter +2.5 (-115 at FD Sportsbook)

The Raptors score seventh-most points per first quarter (30) and allow the 10th-fewest (27.5). The Bucks may have the better first-quarter offense, as they rank third in points per first quarter (31.1), but they rank just 12th in points allowed in the frame (27.9). These averages point to value on the Raptors against this wide first-quarter spread. Further, these teams have played two first quarters this season, and both ended in 33-33 ties.

Top Player Prop of the Day

Sirois: Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds (-115 at FD Sportsbook)

The Kings give up the second-most rebounds to centers, where Adebayo spends 49% of his minutes. While they give up the second-fewest boards to power forwards, where Adebayo spends the rest of his time, they may struggle to limit him without Richaun Holmes and Harrison Barnes. Although Adebayo averages only 9.2 boards per game, he nabbed 13 when these teams met in January, and that was with both Holmes and Barnes in the lineup. With those two now sidelined, I expect an even bigger performance out of him tonight.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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Bet Types, NBA