Super Wild Card Weekend wasn’t all that super. Neither were last week’s prop bet recommendations, which were a juice-losing 3-3. (There were actually seven recommendations, but the under on Leonard Fournette’s rushing yardage was voided when Fournette was scratched due to a hamstring injury.)
Last week’s wins: Ben Roethlisberger under 229.5 passing yards, Devin Singletary over 64.5 rushing yards, and Deebo Samuel over 28.5 rushing yards.
Last week’s losses: Mac Jones under 205.5 passing yards, Joe Burrow over 261.5 passing yards, and Rob Gronkowski over 55.5 receiving yards.
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I’m going back to the well again on two of last week’s bets, and I’ll be trying to leverage the talents of three of the best wide receivers in the game. Let’s get into it, shall we?
- Last week’s bets: 3-3
- Season record: 61-44
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 282.5 passing yards
Mahomes has cleared this number in just one of his last four games, two of his last eight, and six of 18 games this season. He’ll be facing the best pass defense in the league Sunday night when the Bills visit Kansas City. Opponents completed 56% of their throws against Buffalo during the regular season and averaged only 5.7 yards per pass attempt. The Bills lost star CB Tre’Davious White to a torn ACL on Thanksgiving night, but their pass defense hasn’t missed a beat. In the seven games Buffalo has played since losing White only one quarterback (Tom Brady) has thrown for more than 282 yards against the Bills, and only two have thrown for more than 200 yards.
View all Patrick Mahomes prop bet odds >>
Joe Mixon UNDER 59.5 rushing yards
Mixon has carried the ball fewer than 20 times in each of his last six games, so he’s unlikely to beat this number on rushing volume alone. He’s failed to clear this number in five of his last six games, and the Cincinnati running game has collapsed without OT Riley Reiff (ankle, COVID-19), who last played in Week 14 and won’t be back this season. In the five games since, the Bengals have averaged just 82.4 rushing yards. On Saturday, Cincinnati faces a smothering Tennessee run defense that has allowed 84.6 rushing yards per game this season, second-fewest in the league. The Titans are allowing only 3.9 yards per carry and have done a great job of eliminating big runs, having given up a league-low three runs of 20 or more yards. The Titans’ defense has been a pass funnel this season, with opponents throwing against them on 65% of their offensive snaps.
View all Joe Mixon prop bet odds >>
Devin Singletary OVER 59.5 rushing yards
This number is way too low, as is Singletary’s price in DFS contests this week. No one seems willing to acknowledge that Singletary has become a workhorse. His weekly snap shares since Week 14: 82%, 93%, 68%, 80%, 76%, 86%. Singletary has averaged 18.4 carries and 80.8 rushing yards over Buffalo’s last five games, failing to top 59 yards only once during that stretch. This weekend, Singletary faces a Chiefs run defense that gave up 4.8 yards per carry during the regular season, more than any other team except Pittsburgh.
View all Devin Singletary prop bet odds >>
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 75.5 receiving yards
Chase has topped this number in three of his last four games and four of his last six. The most recent miss was a meaningless Week 18 game in which he played only five snaps. Chase had 7-125-0 on 10 targets against the Ravens in Week 16, 11-266-3 on 12 targets against the Chiefs in Week 17, and 9-116-0 in 12 targets last week against the Raiders. As noted in the Joe Mixon write-up above, the Titans have an extreme pass-funnel defense, largely because it’s so difficult to run against them. Expect Chase to be featured prominently in the Bengals’ Saturday game plan.
View all Ja’Marr Chase prop bet odds >>
Davante Adams OVER 90.5 rushing yards
Let’s start with a local angle. Adams was born in Redwood City, less than 30 miles south of San Francisco, and attended high school in nearby Palo Alto. In five career games against the 49ers, he’s averaged 9.6 catches, 123.6 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns. When Adams faced his hometown team back in Week 3, he had 12-132-1 on a season-high 18 targets. The 49ers don’t have a cornerback on their roster capable of covering Adams one on one. Adams has beaten this number in five of his last seven games.
View all Davante Adams prop bet odds >>
George Kittle OVER 48.5 receiving yards
This number is so low because of Kittle’s sparse usage over the last month. In San Francisco’s last four games, Kittle has had 9-78-0 on 15 targets, averaging 19.5 receiving yards per game. But we know what Kittle is capable of. He averaged 65 receiving yards a game during the regular season had seven catches for 92 yards against the Packers in Week 3. I like his chances for a rebound game.
View all George Kittle prop bet odds >>
Cooper Kupp OVER 98.5 receiving yards
Kupp won the Triple Crown of receiving this season, leading the league in receptions (145), receiving yardage (1,947), and TD catches (16). He averaged 114.5 receiving yards per game during the regular season. Kupp has been hard on the Buccaneers for the last three years. He had 9-96-2 against them in Week 3. He also had 11-145-0 against them in 2020 and 9-121-1 against them in 2019. It’s not clear who’ll be trying to cover Kupp on Sunday afternoon. Buccaneers slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting is dealing with a hamstring issue and didn’t play in the Bucs’ wild-card win over the Eagles. If Murphy-Bunting can’t go. Responsibility for covering Kupp will likely fall to second-year safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who covered Eagles slot receiver Quez Watkins last week and held him to 2-35-0 on seven targets. Winfield is a terrific young player, but covering Kupp is considerably trickier than covering Quez Watkins.
View all Cooper Kupp prop bet odds >>
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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