The NFL has had games throughout this holiday week, but we’re focusing on Sunday’s slate to target NFL player props in this article. With only two weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, teams with a mathematical probability of clinching a playoff berth will keep their foot on the gas and be aggressive on offense to ensure they come out with a win. I’m targeting matchups with three teams firmly in the playoff hunt to maximize our chances of winning player props in Week 17.
My NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bets went 2-1, staying profitable for the third consecutive week. Only Bengals RB Chase Brown failed to cash over 27.5 receiving yards, finishing with three receptions for 18 yards. Bijan Robinson logged 22 carries, going over 18.5 rush attempts, while Jahmyr Gibbs recorded 109 rushing yards to go over 91.5 total rushing yards against Chicago.
Let’s keep the momentum rolling into Sunday’s Week 17 NFL slate and bet three new NFL player props. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL free bets and weekly analysis.
NFL Week 17 Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bucky Irving O 15.5 Rush Attempts (-114)
Tampa Bay’s rookie running back has emerged as their definitive RB1, replacing Rachaad White with his explosiveness and power between the tackles. Irving has logged over 15.5 carries in two of the Buccaneers’ last four games, including a monstrous outing with 25 carries for 117 rushing yards in an overtime win against Carolina.
This week, the Buccaneers host the Panthers for the second-time in December and they have to win this game to compete for the NFC South divisional title with the Atlanta Falcons. Expect OC Liam Coen to dial up another 20 carries for Irving against the league’s worst run defense. Carolina is allowing 5.1 YPC and has surrendered over 200 rushing yards in four consecutive games.
Let’s not overthink this one and bet one unit on Irving to finish with 16 or more carries at home in a must-win game against a terrible Panthers run defense on Sunday afternoon.
Jordan Love O 20.5 Pass Completions (-125)
Green Bay has been leaning heavily on its run game to win games down the stretch, however, Minnesota’s stout run defense will force Packers QB Jordan Love to throw more in a huge NFC North divisional tilt at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
Love hasn’t gone over 20.5 pass completions in three straight games, including five of his last six outings. However, based on the matchup and Minnesota’s weakness defending explosive plays in the passing attack, Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur will dial up a more pass-centric gameplan for his franchise quarterback to execute.
During Love’s first game back from a Week 1 injury in late September, he logged 32 completions on 54 pass attempts when Green Bay fell into a big deficit early against the Vikings. I don’t expect the Packers to fall down by that much of a margin in this second matchup but Love will definitely record over 20.5 pass completions to exploit Minnesota’s defensive weakness and potentially improve their playoff seeding in the NFC.
Let’s bet a unit on Love to record over 20.5 pass completions in dry, warm conditions on the road against Minnesota on Sunday’s late afternoon slate.
Bijan Robinson O 81.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Atlanta finds itself currently atop the NFC South division with Tampa Bay’s loss to Dallas in Week 16. Michael Penix Jr. had some good throws and moments during his NFL debut in a favorable matchup against the New York Giants. Now, the Falcons hit the road for a primetime matchup against a 10-win Washington Commanders team led by No. 2 overall draft pick, QB Jayden Daniels.
The Commanders’ run defense is one of the worst units in the league this season. Washington is allowing 4.8 YPC, tied for third-highest in the league alongside the Cowboys and Giants. Atlanta’s star running back, Bijan Robinson, continued to play the role of workhorse in the Falcons’ backfield against a porous Giants run defense.
Expect a similar approach from Atlanta to mitigate mistakes and miscues from Penix in a must-win game against a playoff-caliber opponent who has yet to clinch a playoff berth. Robinson has logged 20 or more carries in five of the Falcons’ last six games, going over 81.5 rushing yards in all five contests. This includes against the Minnesota Vikings’ talented run defense in early December.
Let’s bet one more unit on Robinson to record over 81.5 rushing yards against Washington’s struggling run defense on Sunday Night Football.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.