The final week of the 2024-25 NFL regular season is here. The season has had plenty of plot twists and narratives that have emerged, and even with teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs, there is still motivation fueling them to perform well to earn bonus money from contract incentives. It should be an exciting final weekend of games on the NFL Week 18 slate.
My NFL Week 17 Player Prop Bets went 2-1 yet again, remaining profitable for the fourth consecutive week. Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving went over 15.5 rush attempts, finishing with 20 carries in a plus matchup against Carolina, while Falcons RB Bijan Robinson logged over 81.5 rushing yards against Washington. The lone loser on the betting card was Jordan Love, who finished with 19 pass completions, failing to go over 20.5, despite playing in a positive game script during a loss to Minnesota.
I’ve found three NFL player props, each worth a one-unit bet, heading into Sunday’s NFL Week 18 slate. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL free bets and weekly analysis throughout the playoffs and the offseason.
NFL Week 18 Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bijan Robinson O 18.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
Atlanta has to beat Carolina in Week 18 to preserve a potential playoff seed. Fortunately for the Falcons, they have star RB Bijan Robinson in their backfield, going up against the league’s worst run defense. The Panthers are the only team allowing over 5.0 YPC and have surrendered over 200 rushing yards in five consecutive games.
Robinson is a workhorse for Atlanta, recording 19 or more carries in four of his last five games. He is coming off of a 17 carry performance against Washington, but this was primarily due to gamescript with the Falcons falling behind in the second half and never getting the football during their overtime loss to the Commanders.
Expect a heavy dose of Robinson carries in the best matchup for running backs to exploit. Let’s bet a unit on Robinson to get back on track and finish with over 18.5 carries at home in a must-win game against the porous Carolina run defense.
Bucky Irving O 90.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Tampa Bay has to beat New Orleans to advance to the NFC playoffs. They were swept by Atlanta but hold the division crown by half a game, following their blowout win on the road against Carolina and Atlanta’s overtime loss to Washington in Week 17.
Buccaneers rookie RB Bucky Irving has been very profitable when I’ve targeted him in various player prop markets. The Saints rank second-worst in the NFL regarding their run defense, surrendering 4.9 YPC and giving up 166 or more rushing yards in five straight games.
Irving went for 14-81-1 as a ball carrier during Tampa Bay’s 51-27 win on the road against the Saints in mid-October. Irving has completely taken over Tampa Bay’s backfield and is coming off of a 113 rushing yard performance against an equally bad Panthers’ run defense. Irving has over 90.5 rushing yards in three of his past five games, which came against the Panthers twice and the Chargers.
Let’s bet another unit on Irving to stay hot and get plenty of carries in a plus-matchup on the ground that the Buccaneers must win to qualify for the four-seed in the NFC playoffs.
Geno Smith O 242.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Geno Smith is playing for a lot of incentive money on the road against the Los Angeles Rams this weekend. The Seahawks have been eliminated from playoff contention but will face a Rams defense that may be resting several key starters due to locking up the three-seed in the NFC playoffs.
Smith needs 186 passing yards to get $2 million based on his passing yards contract incentive. He’s currently at 4,097 yards and previously went for 363 passing yards in a 26-20 overtime loss to the Rams back in early November.
Smith has only cleared 242.5 passing yards once in his last five matchups, which came against the Vikings’ porous secondary. The Rams have allowed 243 passing yards in three of their last four games, so with Smith having plenty of incentive motivation, combined with facing a short-handed Rams defense, I anticipate a lot of aggressive throws from Smith early in this contest.
One final unit can be wagered on Smith to go over 242.5 passing yards on the road against the Rams during Sunday’s late afternoon window.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.