Saturday brings us an outdoor game between the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche on Lake Tahoe. Yes, I know, it’s actually on the golf course next to the lake – spare me the rhetoric! Just sit back and enjoy the scenery. Now let’s break down that game below.
YTD: 57-41 (+25.12)
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Vegas Golden Knights (+100) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-115)
In not-so-shocking news, this will be the third matchup between these two squads within the past week. Last time out, the Avalanche were victorious after a last-minute Nazem Kadri goal.
This game is a virtual pick ‘em, as these teams are the best in the west – literally. We can anticipate a high-pace and tight checking. Both games against one another have been decided by one goal, and I believe that’s what we’ll see here.
Below, we’ll analyze the metrics from Tuesday’s game 5v5:
- CF%: VGK (52.34%) COL (47.66)
- HDCF: VGK (15) COL (6)
- xGF: VGK (2.65) COL (2.11)
- xGF%: VGK (55.67) COL (44.33)
Result: 3-2 Colorado Win
As we can see, Vegas mostly dominated this game from a metrics perspective despite being on the losing end. So, did they deserve better? Well, maybe not, and I’ll show you why below.
Metrics from last Sunday’s game, 5v5:
- CF%: VGK (43.01) COL (56.99)
- HDCF: VGK (9) COL (9)
- xGF: VGK (1.68) COL (2.4)
- xGF%: VGK (41.08) COL (58.92)
Result: 1-0 Vegas Win
Colorado clearly dominated this game analytically but lost. Sensing a theme here?
Truth be told, these games are so competitive that the metrics don’t truly point us in the right direction. So, what do we do in a coin flip scenario? Well, the easy solution would be to flip a Harvey Dent coin and get on with our lives. Maybe drink a few Sierra Nevada’s to be festive? Go on and on about how we can’t believe we used to drink warm Keystones in college? Which I can, considering I had maybe $182 in my account back then. But I digress.
In this case, I will side with the team with better goaltending and not laying any juice. Marc-Andre Fleury has been absolutely sensational this season for the Golden Knights – registering a .937 SV% and 6.7 GSAA. He stole the game last Sunday, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be in the same form for this one.
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