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Top NHL Betting Picks for Saturday, February 20 (2021)

by February 20, 2021

Saturday brings us an outdoor game between the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche on Lake Tahoe. Yes, I know, it’s actually on the golf course next to the lake – spare me the rhetoric! Just sit back and enjoy the scenery. Now let’s break down that game below.

YTD: 57-41 (+25.12)

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Vegas Golden Knights (+100) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-115)

In not-so-shocking news, this will be the third matchup between these two squads within the past week. Last time out, the Avalanche were victorious after a last-minute Nazem Kadri goal.

This game is a virtual pick ‘em, as these teams are the best in the west – literally. We can anticipate a high-pace and tight checking. Both games against one another have been decided by one goal, and I believe that’s what we’ll see here.

Below, we’ll analyze the metrics from Tuesday’s game 5v5:

  • CF%: VGK (52.34%) COL (47.66)
  • HDCF: VGK (15) COL (6)
  • xGF: VGK (2.65) COL (2.11)
  • xGF%: VGK (55.67) COL (44.33)

Result: 3-2 Colorado Win

As we can see, Vegas mostly dominated this game from a metrics perspective despite being on the losing end. So, did they deserve better? Well, maybe not, and I’ll show you why below.

Metrics from last Sunday’s game, 5v5:

  • CF%: VGK (43.01) COL (56.99)
  • HDCF: VGK (9) COL (9)
  • xGF: VGK (1.68) COL (2.4)
  • xGF%: VGK (41.08) COL (58.92)

Result: 1-0 Vegas Win

Colorado clearly dominated this game analytically but lost. Sensing a theme here?

Truth be told, these games are so competitive that the metrics don’t truly point us in the right direction. So, what do we do in a coin flip scenario? Well, the easy solution would be to flip a Harvey Dent coin and get on with our lives. Maybe drink a few Sierra Nevada’s to be festive? Go on and on about how we can’t believe we used to drink warm Keystones in college? Which I can, considering I had maybe $182 in my account back then. But I digress.

In this case, I will side with the team with better goaltending and not laying any juice. Marc-Andre Fleury has been absolutely sensational this season for the Golden Knights – registering a .937 SV% and 6.7 GSAA. He stole the game last Sunday, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be in the same form for this one.

Pick: Vegas (+100) or better. Under 5.5 (-108)

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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.