We began the week on a good note, going 2-1 last night as only the Nashville Predators let us down. Where have we heard that before?
Tuesday brings us a nine-game slate with a plethora of wagering options. We’ll analyze two games below that, as of this writing, I like the best; and we will be adding to the card as more information becomes available throughout the day.
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YTD: 33-24 (+13.12u)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Carolina Hurricanes (-177) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (+148)
Both these teams have battled their fair share of adversity this season surrounding COVID exposures and protocol. However, both have responded well. Carolina has rattled off three-straights wins, and Chicago is 3-3 in their past six games played – which is solid considering they’re in the midst of a rebuild.
On paper, this is a complete mismatch. The Hurricanes will be in contention with Tampa Bay for the Central Division title as they are one of the deeper teams in the NHL, especially on the blue line. They’re one of the top possession teams in the league with a CF% of 58.43 and CF/60 of 62.18. So, we shouldn’t expect Chicago to have the puck much in this one.
The key metric in this matchup is the Hurricanes’ GF/60 of 1.31. Why? Because their xGF/60 is a league-high 2.83, signifying that we should see an offensive explosion from them any game now.
Chicago is a decent offensive team but porous on defense. Goaltender Kevin Lankinen has been sensational as of late with a GSAA of +6.10 in six games played – though not sustainable, due to his poor supporting cast.
I’m not willing to pay this heavy of juice on any favorite in the NHL due to its variance, so I will play the ‘Canes to win in regulation – Note: Take this bet early as the line will rise throughout the day.
Arizona Coyotes (+145) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-175)
Arizona begins a six-game road trip tonight when they travel to St. Louis. It’s been an up & down year for the Coyotes as they currently sit 7th in the West Division at 3-4-1. Despite their lackluster record, the ‘Yotes have some promising underlying statistics that tell us they deserve better.
They’re currently averaging 1.93 goals scored per game but own an xGF/60 of 2.7. Also, they own an impressive CF/60 of 59.07. So, one would think that their fortunes will turn around sooner rather than later. Then again, they’re still the Coyotes, so I suppose that’s disputable.
The Blues are riding a three-game win streak as they return home from out west, where they beat up on the lowly Anaheim Ducks and stole a game from the Vegas Golden Knights. Jordan Binnington has been solid in net, posting a GSAA of +2.82, despite getting peppered on numerous occasions.
There’s no doubt this team is one of the best in the NHL. However, the eye test shows us they haven’t truly found their footing. Not to mention despite averaging 3.78 goals per game, their xGF/60 is only 2.21. With a pedestrian corsi and presumably facing the stellar Darcy Kuemper in net, they may stumble in this one.
Pick: Arizona (+145) .5u
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