Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/3)

Following a massive 12-game Thursday slate, the NHL only has two games going Friday night. One of which is the second leg of a home-and-home series between the Buffalo Sabres and Philadelphia Flyers, while our second game involves the only team who also played Thursday night.

Let’s dive into this short Friday night slate.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Friday’s NHL Best Bets

Philadelphia Flyers (+154) at Buffalo Sabres (-185) | Total 7

These two teams will renew pleasantries after Buffalo beat Philadelphia 5-2 on the road Wednesday night. However, a deeper look into the game suggests the Flyers deserved a better result.

For starters, starting goaltender Carter Hart exited the game midway through the first period with a mid-body injury. Samuel Ersson entered the game and allowed two goals on only seven shots. Ersson could man the crease again Friday night as the Flyers recalled Cal Petersen with Hart sidelined.

Ersson has been one of the league’s worst goaltenders through the young season, as he ranks dead-last in expected goals saved above expected. Petersen isn’t much better of an option, as he last appeared in a game last November and posted a -9.3 goals saved above expected in just 10 appearances a season ago.

Despite Philadelphia’s messy situation between the pipes, the postgame metrics suggest the Flyers deserved better Wednesday night. Philadelphia dominated possession with a Corsi For Rating of 64.5%, and was the superior team at 5-on-5. Per NaturalStatTrick, Philadelphia won the expected goals battle 2.15-1.12 at 5-on-5 play. However, Buffalo wound up outscoring Philadelphia 4-2 at 5-on-5 in actuality.

It’s also worth noting Philadelphia dominated the third period, posting an expected goals margin of 1.12-0.26, but wound up getting outscored 2-0 in the third stanza.

All of this screams regression in Philly’s favor. Sabres goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen also stopped 1.61 goals above what was expected, and it’s hard to see him topping Wednesday’s effort should he take the crease again.

Philadelphia’s goaltending situation is worth some concern, but I’m expecting Philadelphia to bring an inspired effort to end a three-game losing streak and get better results this time around.

The pick: Flyers ML (+154)

New Jersey Devils (-155) at St. Louis Blues (+130) | Total 6.5

The Devils are coming off a 5-3 win over Minnesota Thursday night, while St. Louis returns to home ice after a four-game road trip looking to snap a two-game losing skid. While New Jersey held slight edges in possession, scoring chances, and expected goals at 5-on-5, the difference in the game was two New Jersey goals on the man advantage.

Last night’s win resembled what the season has looked like for the Devils so far. New Jersey typically outplays their opponents at 5-0n-5 but has been far more successful converting on the power play. The Devils’ power play leads the league with a 44.7% conversion percentage, a number that’s highly likely to regress.

What’s fascinating about this matchup is that St. Louis has done a great job of staying out of the box. The Blues have taken the fewest penalties in the league to this point and average the fewest penalty minutes per game. St. Louis has also been decent when forced to go on the penalty kill, ranking 15th with a 78.3 kill percentage.

The problem for St. Louis is they get absolutely dominated at even strength. The Blues rank dead-last in Corsi For percentage, 31st in scoring chances for percentage, 30th in high-danger chances for percentage, and dead-last in expected goals for at 5-on-5 play.

Goaltender Jordan Binnington had been the primary reason St. Louis was able to stick around in games, but his play has fallen off lately. Binnington has allowed nine goals in his last two appearances after allowing just seven goals in his first four outings. We could see backup Joel Hofer make his fourth start of the season Friday night.

With New Jersey starting Vitek Vanecek Thursday in Minnesota, we’ll most likely see Akira Schmid between the pipes tonight. While Schmid helped propel New Jersey to the second round of the playoffs with hot play, he has struggled to find his form to begin the year.

This is a tough spot for New Jersey playing for a second straight night on the road, but the Blues are just too porous at 5-on-5 to trust at this price. If I had to make a play on this game, I’d go with the over in what could be a battle between backup goaltenders.

The pick: Lean over 6.5 goals

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: