UFC 295 is an incredibly balanced and intriguing card. We have two title fights that feature four fighters in their prime. We have an underrated undercard that features up-and-coming prospects and proven veterans. As cliche as it sounds, this could compete for card of the year. I will pinpoint my favorite longshot of the card, let’s dive in!!!
Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
UFC 295 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
I will target the matchup of Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis. Most of this card is close to a pick em but this matchup presents us with tremendous value in the form of ever-dangerous Matt Frevola. Posted below are both fighters’ advanced statistical profiles from a previous article.
Benoit Saint-Denis
- Dist Acc Off: 50.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 14.91
- Dist Def: 50%
- KD%: 1.1% (3 KDs out of 145 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 46.9%
- Control % Def: 6.6%
Matt Frevola
- Dist Acc Off: 31.6%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.05
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: 12.2% (6 KDs out of 49 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 5.2%
- Control % Def: 34.2%
There are two things that stand out immediately to me. Firstly, Frevola has an insane KD% of 12.2%. Even though this is on a small sample size of distance strikes, six knockdowns are nothing to trifle with. Frevola has recorded a knockdown in three fights in a row. Secondly, Saint-Denis has a concerning distance defense of 50%. The UFC distance defense average is 63%. If Saint-Denis cannot get this fight to the ground, Frevola can make a short order of him.
Bet: Frevola 1st-round KO/TKO +750
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!