UFC 296 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets

UFC 296 is the last event of the year, and it is set with a plethora of interesting matchups and two title fights. There is a possibility for several Fights of the Year nominees on the card and numerous matchups that will shape several divisions.

I’ll pinpoint my favorite longshot of the card. Let’s dive in!

UFC 296 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

I will target the matchup between Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell for this long shot. This is a classic clash of styles: heavy grappler vs. dynamic striker. Emmett is nine years older than Mitchell, but as we will show below, that difference looks to be irrelevant.

Here are the advanced statistical profiles, as posted in my initial breakdown of this fight:

Bryce Mitchell (-225) vs. Josh Emmett (+185)

Bryce Mitchell

Dist Acc Off: 34.9%
Dist Att/Min: 8.14
Dist Def: 66%
KD%: 1.1% (1 KD out of 88 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 48.9%
Control % Def: 17.3%

Josh Emmett

Dist Acc Off: 32.1%
Dist Att/Min: 10.91
Dist Def: 60%
KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 180 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 6.5%
Control % Def: 6.7%

One thing that needs to be considered when analyzing this matchup is the overall strength of the opponents both these fighters have faced.

Emmett is coming off back-to-back wars with Ilia Topuria and Yair Rodriguez. Both of these fighters are versatile strikers with a diverse repertoire of weapons. Emmett matches up better with fighters who fight at a moderate pace and throw simplistic combinations. The biggest problem he had with Yair was that he threw six or seven styles of kicks, elbows, spinning attacks, etc. It was just overwhelming, and Emmett could not respond. When Emmett landed, he stunned Yair and changed the momentum momentarily.

When both fighters faced Topuria, they were both simply outclassed, but only Mitchell was finished. Mitchell is not as diverse or dynamic of a strike to give Emmett problems. Therefore, he will have to get this fight to the ground.

Emmett trains at Team Alpha Male and has an extensive wrestling background. If he can stifle Mitchell, it will only take one punch to turn the tide. Another factor is the height difference. Emmett is four inches shorter, and as most know, it is infinitely harder to take down the shorter man, who is also the bigger man.

I believe Emmett will connect with an overhand right that will spell the end of Mitchell’s night.

Bet: Josh Emmett by KO/TKO (+400) + Josh Emmett by KO/TKO Round 1 (+850)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!