The UFC is back after a week off, and they have a stacked card for UFC 302. The Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., will host the lightweight title bout between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier. The card also features No. 1-ranked middleweight Sean Strickland, who will fight the seventh-ranked Paulo Costa. This pay-per-view card should be enjoyable, with several entertaining fighters.
The best longshot bet on the card comes early during the night, but the fighter has plenty of motivation to get the finish. Do not miss this fight and get any bets in early!
UFC 302 Longshot Prop Bet (2024)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Mickey Gall (+300) vs. Bassil Hafez (-430)
I have written some analysis of this fight, detailing it as one of my favorite bets on the preliminary card. Mickey Gall is from Green Brook, N.J., trains out of Sussex County MMA and will be fighting in his backyard in Newark. He should have plenty of family and friends in attendance and will be plenty motivated to put on a show. He could also be fighting to extend his contract with the promotion. His contract expired following his last fight after his KO loss to Mike Malott in April 2022. He got another chance and plenty of time to recover from the knockout, so he should be ready to prove his worth.
Bassil Hafez is from Philadelphia, so he will also be fighting near his hometown, but he trains in Colorado with the Elevation Fight Team. Hafez is a muscle-bound, strong welterweight but does not have the knockout power one might expect by looking at him. He has only finished one fight by KO in his 13 professional fights. He is a first-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has never lost via submission in his career.
Hafez has also not fought someone at Gall's skill level on the mat. Six of Gall's seven victories have come via submission, and all but one came in the UFC. He has strangled several high-level fighters who knew exactly what to expect when fighting Gall, but he still managed to find a choke. Hafez has undoubtedly been training to stop any submission attempts Gall might try, but it is different in the third round of a grueling fight. Can he stay composed in grappling exchanges?
The odds for this fight seem a little too wide on the moneyline, and the submission odds for Gall are wide. Odds of +650 are too high to pass up, but do not go crazy betting on this. Betting more than one unit on this prop is not recommended and may even be too high. I would typically wager a half unit or less on a prop like this because I believe it is mispriced. Hafez utilizes a wrestling approach and will be at a reach disadvantage while striking. He should shoot several takedowns, and Gall will have multiple chances to work on the mat to find a submission.
Bet: Mickey Gall To Win by Submission (+650)
