The first pay-per-view (PPV) of 2025 is here and the card is stacked. There are two title fights scheduled for the Lightweight and Bantamweight titles. Merab Dvalishvili will put his belt on the line against Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event. Islam Makhachev will battle Arman Tsarukyan for a second time, but this time in the main event for the title.
The event takes place in the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, with the main card starting at 10:00 p.m. EST.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
UFC 311 Longshot Prop Bets (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Grant Dawson (-245) vs. Diego Ferreira (+200)
The odds for this fight are not awful, but Diego Ferreira should be respected more. Understandably, he is the underdog against Grant Dawson, who is 22-2-1. Ferreira is turning 40 on the day of the fight but has performed well in recent fights. He has won two consecutive fights over Mateusz Rebecki and Michael Johnson, both by knockout. He has found some power in the late stages of his career and is live to get another knockout on his resume this week.
Grant Dawson is still considered a prospect in the Lightweight division, but he has had 12 fights in the UFC since 2019 and has not proven much outside of being active. He has fought twice every year since 2019 but does not have a huge victory to show for it. His last loss was against King Green in 2023. Green knocked him out with a jab in 33 seconds, which shows his questionable chin.
Dawson will look to wrestle Ferreira, but he may not be able to hold him down once he lands the takedown. Ferreira needs to find one power shot to land a knockout here. I trust the veteran to do that, especially at this number.
Bet: Diego Ferreira to Win by Knockout (+700)
Beneil Dariush (+136) vs. Renato Moicano (-162)
Beneil Dariush is trending in the wrong direction and is coming off a torn meniscus. He has lost his last two fights by first-round knockout, albeit to Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. Dariush was on an impressive run before those fights but has a lot of tread on the tires. He is 22-6-1 as a professional with a 16-6-1 record in the UFC. Five losses have been via knockout, with four coming in the first round.
Renato "Money" Moicano is the same age as Dariush but has been in far fewer battles. His record is 20-5-1 as a professional and 12-5 in the UFC. Both men debuted in 2014, but the road here has been far easier for Moicano, who has been patient and has developed into a contender in the Lightweight division. Moicano's last win was over Benoit Saint-Denis via knockout in September, which was massive for his career.
I love the knockout prop for Moicano at +300, but that would not be right to give out for a longshot prop. Dariush has a track record of getting knocked out in the first round and "Money" Moicano will be looking to get paid. There is no better way to get a check than sleeping Dariush in the first round.
Bet: Renato Moicano to Win by Knockout in Round 1 (+600)
