Tom Aspinall is finally making his comeback after more than a year since his title defense against Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304. This time, he is fighting Ciryl Gane, who has held an interim belt, but never the real one. Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern are throwing down in the co-main event for the vacant women's strawweight title. The rest of the main card also features three other ranked fights, so it should be an exciting pay-per-view card. The prelims start at 10:00 am Eastern, with the main card at 2:00 pm from Etihad Arena at Yas Island, UAE.
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UFC 321 Prelims Card Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nathaniel Wood (+124) vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (-148)
Jose Delgado is 2-0 in the UFC and is facing his toughest test yet in Nathaniel Wood. Wood is 9-3 in the UFC since 2018, and has gone the distance in eight consecutive fights. Delgado has two first-round knockouts in both of his wins. Wood is the actual test for Delgado to see if he has all the skills. Wood is well-rounded and is a solid fighter in every aspect of the fight.
Nathaniel Wood lands 5.66 significant strikes and absorbs 3.89 significant strikes per minute. He averages 1.41 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and defends 72% of takedowns. Delgado only has three fights, including his Dana White's Contender Series fight, so his stats are a bit misleading. He lands 7.13 significant strikes and absorbs 3.67 significant strikes per minute, while landing 4.58 takedowns per 15 minutes.
I expect Delgado to start aggressively and fight at range, using his kicks. He has a five-inch reach advantage and should use it well against Wood to keep him at range. Delgado also has solid wrestling and can negate Wood's grappling. Wood may land shots of his own, especially as a scrappy veteran, but Delgado has the power advantage, and it should show.
Pick: Jose Miguel Delgado Moneyline (-148)
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (-102) vs. Matheus Camilo (-118)
Both of these men got finished in their UFC debut fights and are looking for a solid comeback. Camilo landed two takedowns in his debut fight against Gabe Green, but got caught in a submission. Al-Selwady got knocked out in the third round against Loik Radzhabov in a close fight until that point. He landed three takedowns in that matchup and had just under three minutes of control time.
Camilo has solid power in the division and is a threat on the mat. Al-Selwady is a pressure fighter who looks to land big shots or wrestle to gain top control and deliver ground-and-pound. He has decent striking, but Camilo is the more accurate striker. He must stay on his feet and defend takedowns, but he can hurt Al-Selwady on the feet. Camilo's accurate striking should prove to be the difference in this matchup, should he stay on his feet.
If he does get taken down, Camilo can work towards a submission. That is not the best game plan, but he could find a submission from his back, though it looks bad being on the bottom and getting controlled. He has the striking to win this fight and, potentially, finish this fight on the feet.
Pick: Matheus Camilo Moneyline (-118)
