The UFC has not had a fight card since the first half of December, but they are back! They return with a new media deal with Paramount+ and an awesome pay-per-view card. Paddy Pimblett is getting his first shot at an interim title against Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight belt. The winner will fight Ilia Topuria at a later date. There are also six other fights between ranked opponents on the card, including the co-main event between Sean O'Malley and Song Yadong. The early prelims start at 5 p.m. EST, and the main card gets underway at 9 p.m. EST.
Watch big title fights on DAZN>>
UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Justin Gaethje (+190)
Justin Gaethje is 3-2 in his last five fights, dating back to 2022. His two losses are against Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway. He beat Dustin Poirier and Rafael Fiziev twice. His second bout with Fiziev was in March 2025, and he won via unanimous decision.
He lands 6.59 significant strikes and absorbs 7.18 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 58% accuracy and defends 51% of the opponent's significant strikes. Gaethje is a solid wrestler, but does not utilize it much. He averages 0.1 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 14% accuracy. He defends 68% of takedowns.
Paddy Pimblett (-230)
Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett is 23-3 as a professional and 7-0 in the UFC. His most recent victory was a knockout victory over Michael Chandler in April 2025. He has defeated King Green, Tony Ferguson, and Jared Gordon before that.
Pimblett lands 5.19 significant strikes and absorbs 3.14 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 53% accuracy and defends 42% of the opponent's significant strikes. He averages 0.96 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 28% accuracy. Pimblett defends 50% of takedowns. He has won three fights in the UFC by submission and averages 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Prediction
Justin Gaethje is walking into an unfair matchup. He is too willing to stand with his opponent, which works due to his power, but he gets hit too much. Gaethje absorbs too many significant strikes, and Pimblett can land them with his range and hand speed. Gaethje takes a lot of damage to land strikes of his own, and that will not work against Pimblett, who lands at a high rate and takes few hits.
Gaethje's one weakness has been on the mat for a long time. He was submitted in two of his five UFC losses. Pimblett has a clear advantage on the mat and can get it there. He does not always rely on traditional wrestling to get opponents to the mat; he can take their backs while standing. He also uses the clinch to trip his opponent and bring them to the mat.
Gaethje is too worried about striking at 37. He has always leaned on his ability to eat a strike to land one, which does not age well. At some point, that damage always catches up with fighters. Pimblett is an intelligent fighter who wants to bring this fight into his realm. It is his most straightforward path to victory, and he should finish this fight with a choke.
Pick: Paddy Pimblett to Win by Submission (+135)
