We have a numbered UFC event in New Jersey this weekend, and it should be a fantastic card with a couple of championship belts up for grabs. The main event is a 185-pound clash between (C) Khamzat Chimaev and (#3) Sean Strickland, while the co-main event pits (C) Joshua Van against (#3) Tatsuro Taira for the Flyweight title.
You can find our top bets and analysis for the main card over at our UFC page. In this article, I'm diving into the prelims. Specifically, I've narrowed in on three matchups from the early fights. Let's check out the preliminary card odds and my top bets for UFC 328 on Saturday.
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UFC 328 Prelims Card Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Joel Alvarez (+160) vs. Yaroslav Amosov (-192)
This preliminary bout in the Welterweight division should be a fun one, as (#14) Yaroslav Amosov gears up to take on Joel Alvarez. Amosov is coming off of his UFC debut, where he submitted Neil Magny (Anaconda Choke) in the first round this past December. He's nearly a 2-to-1 favorite to take down Joel Alvarez (+160).
It's a bit steep, but I do think the price is warranted for Yaroslav Amosov on Saturday night. The Ukrainian-born brawler has compiled quite the resume, entering the weekend at 29-1-0 professionally. Amosov has racked up 12 submission victories and nine knockouts.
We should see Amosov excel with his wrestling in this match, and I ultimately think that'll be the difference maker. He's averaging 4.64 takedowns per 15 minutes, while his opponent, Joel Alvarez, is fending off only 47% of opposing takedown attempts. Whether Amosov is able to get the finish is a different question, but even if he can't, the ground control time and top position should be enough to sway the judges if a decision occurs.
Pick: Yaroslav Amosov Moneyline (-192)
Roman Kopylov (+154) vs. Marco Tulio (-185)
In the early prelims, we have what should be a fantastic standup fight between two strikers. Roman Kopylov is a moderate +154 underdog in this Middleweight bout, while Marco Tulio sits at -185 to bounce back from his knockout loss (Punch) to Christian Leroy Duncan in November 2025.
Roman Kopylov is a fringe middleweight guy, but he has fought plenty of notable middleweights and posted a 14-5-0 record overall. Unfortunately, he has been on the wrong side of a couple of decisions recently to quality fighters in Paulo Costa (U-DEC) and Gregory Rodrigues (U-DEC). Considering the advantage in strength of opponent that Kopylov has versus Marco Tulio, I think this is a good spot to back the Russian as an underdog.
Additionally, this matchup seems to play to Kopylov's favor in that it'll likely be a standup fight. With Kopylov having 12 knockout wins across his 14-5-0 career, he's always a candidate to bury his opponent. Since Tulio is coming off of a knockout loss, I think it's fair to question how his chin will hold up against the heavy-handed Kopylov. Ultimately, I view this fight as more of a pick 'em between two elite strikers, so I believe there's value with the dog. Give me Kopylov.
Pick: Roman Kopylov Moneyline (+154)
Pat Sabatini (-205) vs. William Gomis (+170)
Pat Sabatini has rattled off three consecutive wins, and he finds himself as a -205 moneyline favorite on Saturday against France's William Gomis. The Frenchman is 15-3-0 throughout his MMA career, including going 5-1-0 in the UFC. He comes back at +170 to get his hand raised.
This price on Pat Sabatini, in my opinion, is a bit short. I envision the Philadelphia native ragdolling William Gomis on Saturday night and winning with relative ease. Sabatini has a clear wrestle-first approach, as he's landing 4.48 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’ll take on Gomis, who boasts a respectable 72% takedown defense rate, but has been taken down at least once in three straight fights.
I believe the relentless Sabatini will break through and take this fight to the canvas. From there, I'm not sure if he'll be able to lock in the submission. Gomis, in his defense, has only been finished once in his career, and that came via a heel hook submission 10 years ago. Gomis should survive the full 15 minutes, but I do expect to see Sabatini's top position and control of the fight give him the edge. I'll play Sabatini by decision at +175.
Pick: Pat Sabatini To Win By Decision (+175)
