UFC 333 is a loaded card with two title bouts and several ranked matchups. The promotion is headed to Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Alexander Volkanovski is putting his belt on the line against Movsar Evloev in the main event, while Petr Yan puts his on the line in a rematch with Merab Dvalishvili in the co-main event. The prelims start at 10 a.m. ET, while the main card starts at 2 p.m. ET, all on Paramount+.
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UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alexander Volkanovski (-110)
Alexander Volkanovski is 28-4 as a professional and 15-3 in the UFC. He has only fought in title fights since 2019, and is 8-3 in those fights. His only loss at featherweight during that run was against Ilia Topuria in 2024. He regained his belt with a unanimous decision victory over Diego Lopes, and repeated that outcome in the rematch in January. Islam Makhachev defeated him twice when he moved up to lightweight to try and capture another belt.
Volkanovski lands 5.99 significant strikes and absorbs 3.31 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 57% accuracy and defends 58% of significant strikes. He averages 1.63 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 34% accuracy. Volkanovski defends 68% of opponent's takedowns.
Movsar Evloev (-110)
Movsar Evloev is the No. 1 ranked contender in the featherweight division with an undefeated record of 20-0. He is 10-0 in the UFC since entering the promotion in 2019. Evloev most recently beat Lerone Murphy in March in a five-round bout. He beat Aljamain Sterling and Arnold Allen before that. All of his victories in the UFC have come via decision.
He lands 3.91 significant strikes and absorbs 2.80 significant strikes per minute. Evloev averages 4.78 takedowns landed per 15 minutes at 52% accuracy. He defends 61% of opponents' takedowns.
Prediction
This is an extremely close matchup. Volkanovski is much more beatable at 38 than he was at the beginning of his tremendous reign at the top of the featherweight division. Movsar Evloev is the next great fighter in the division, and his time is now.
Evloev showed how good he is against Murphy in his last fight. He recorded nine takedowns and took over the fight in the championship rounds. He looked better in the later rounds than he did in the first couple of rounds. Evloev's conditioning is on another level, and it can match or be better than Volkanovski's.
Evloev does a lot of good work to the body, which I expect to be the difference in this fight. Volkanovski typically gets better in the championship rounds, but if Evloev lands body shots early, it may not go that way.
The wrestling is very even in this matchup. Both guys do a phenomenal job of mixing in wrestling with their striking. I expect Evloev to have a slight advantage in wrestling, but it is razor-thin. He could find more success later in the fight if he continues to wear down Volkanovski with body shots.
Volkanovski's style is built around movement and activity. Evloev can hamper that with his active style. The key for Evloev is hindering Volkanovski's gas tank by landing hard body shots. I expect him to do that and take over in the championship rounds.
Bet: Movsar Evloev (-110)
