UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs Tybura gets underway this Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, England. There are a couple of great betting angles to attack in what should be an entertaining afternoon of fights.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event.
Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.
UFC Fight Night: Best Longshot Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Davey Grant vs. Daniel Marcos
In the featured preliminary bout, we have a bantamweight fight between Davey Grant and Daniel Marcos.
A highly touted prospect, Marcos enters this scrap with a perfect 14-0 professional record. An excellent boxer, Marcos has dominated each of his two UFC bouts, winning on the contender series with a unanimous decision victory over Brandon Lewis and following that performance with a knockout win over Saimon Oliveira.
He throws heavy and possesses a good chin, two essential traits to possess if you are going to enter a striking match against veteran Davey Grant. While Grant has not been knocked out in his entire professional career, Marcos possesses the spark to be the first to get it done.
Eight of Marcos’ 14 professional wins have come via knockout. Grant is coming off a win against Raphael Assuncao, although he was clearly losing before a Hail Mary submission at the end of the third round.
Grant was throwing wide and heavy in that fight, and if he leaves his chin as exposed against Marcos, he may not be as fortunate.
The Pick: Daniel Marcos via KO/TKO/DQ (+270)
Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
In the main event, there is a heavyweight bout between the No. 5 contender Tom Aspinall and No. 10 Marcin Tybura.
One of the biggest threats in the heavyweight division, Aspinall returns to the octagon after blowing out his knee in the first 15 seconds against Curtis Blaydes in London last July. Prior to that injury, Aspinall was blowing through the heavyweight division with a perfect 5-0 run in the UFC.
All five of those wins came via finish within the first seven minutes of the fight, boasting two submission wins and three knockout victories, including wins over Alexander Volkov (current No. 7 contender) and Serghei Spivac (No. 8). A balanced mixed martial artist with great power and excellent technical prowess both on the feet and on the mat, it is not shocking to see Aspinall priced as a massive -490 favorite against Tybura.
While Tybura is a seasoned veteran and no easy task, he is just simply not on Aspinall’s level at this point in their respective careers. The question is how long will Tybura last in this fight? The answer is I trust his chin more than his ability to scramble with the much younger Aspinall on the mat.
The Pick: Tom Aspinall via Submission (+360)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.